AndyM
Short

USDJPY reversing as carry-trade is being dismantled.

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
Please see the comments on the chart.
Huge 4, small 5?
My only complaint.
Reply
AndyM PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
yeah, some very weird ending.. Unless we shoot for another top in SPX, within a few days, and get to new tops in USDJPY. The problem with my earlier idea (ending diagonal) has faded because now the channel in ED would diverge, which is hardly possible.
I honestly have no idea how to label this thing at the end. I guess I will just wait for some corrective structure appear on the way in JPY, and then will enter short.
Reply
AndyM PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
the thrust out of triangles can be small (its either huge or tiny compared to triangles) - so this is OK. But (4) being so big compared to the rest of the movement underneath - is weird.
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP AndyM
a year ago
Looks like it's a limiting triangle.
Thrust should equal wave 1 of that degree.
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
a year ago
Where's 1 in your count?
I think this is a 4th in the dollar index, but not in usdjpy. It's already in wave 1-2 of 5.
Reply
AndyM PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
its't the advance from Sept 2014 to Oct 2014
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP AndyM
a year ago
I'm long:

snapshot
+1 Reply
AndyM PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
I've been thinking last night about JPY :)
Here's a thought: the advance is incomplete.
I don't know if it will correspond to the upward correction of SPX or SPX will make another high, but we need one more upward pulse on MACD in order to have the complete an beautiful picture:
snapshot
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP AndyM
a year ago
Yep, that's what I think too.
Pending wave 5.
Might be forming an expanding ending diagonal, judging by the ugly waves.
Reply
AndyM PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
yes - expanding! might be! Or a truncation..
Reply
AndyM PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
(one of) the reasons I think we will go up is because the wave structure for Crude is also incomplete. Crude can't go up without SPX, so there will be an upward zigzag in Crude, an upward correction or impulse in SPX, and some ascending action in JPY - all finishing up by end Aug.
snapshot
Reply
AndyM PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
here's my view on Crude. I try to estimate time to completion by mirroring the duration of the completed subwaves into the future, it very often works. Crude also is set for completion of its upward action end August:
snapshot
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP AndyM
a year ago
Yes, we might see some action near September, matches fundamentals.
There's also seasonal cycles that Gann used to watch, one is on September 23rd.
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AndyM PRO AndyM
a year ago
Long.. Interesting. Well, let's see how it goes..
Reply
smitheric1970 PRO AndyM
a year ago
I think we are most likely near priced in for a very moderate rate hike. I would assume further gains in the DX are likely but moderate at best. If in fact an S&P500 reversal is in progress, money will likely roll over into the Yen and Gold. I believe the Yen is starting a solid 3 year trek uphill and that the negative US Dollar/Yen and negative S&P500/Yen correlation will continue over the next 3 years.

Good trading to all!
Reply
Navdeep_Singh
a year ago
Thanks for sharing Andy. :)
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