USD/JPY Short: Looking for pullback confirmaiton on 4H Heikin
Reversal confirmation: RSI 80+ on daily
Fundamentals: OPEC, TRUMPFLATION, Equities boost all based on rumors and no substantial evidence the speed in rise (I don't argue that jobs, homes, and other US domestic indicators showing positive notes since few months back...but still makes no case for discussion). With rate-hike 100% priced in, very difficult say "this movement is only half way" from now to year end. Downside risk-reward much better than upside.Longer term, into 2017, BoJ will account for holding nearly 40% of all JGBs, and be the lead shareholder for 25% of the companies on the Nikkei by the end of 2017 at current pace --- BoJ will be in a tighter position. (Original plan was 2 years from 2013...2017 will mark 4 years, and BoJ tapering is not priced in at all). Also JPY strength can be driven from risk-off events outside of US ---
Fundamentals Risks: Overly hawkish FOMC minutes (indicating more than 3 hikes for 2017) could push assets prices higher on this euphoric rally (2016 did begin in the 119-120 area so still far from breaking even annually). OPEC actually making some significant production cuts. Also market closed in Tokyo and Thanksgiving following that in the US could warrant markets for volatile moves due to lack of liquidity.
Idea: On the 4H Heikin, there has been 4 "knots" in the upward moves. Historically, patterns will show that 1) three-consecutive negative candles or a one large negative candles will show the trigger of the pullback.
Entry: look for the above. If there is a another surge, possible entry points may be 111.50 if it fails to break, or 111.74 if it seems to go through.
SL: Not too high since if it has the power to push up significantly, even 115 is within reach.
TP: Take profit in significant retrace levels, which a portion also being held longer term to the sub-100 area.
Other concerns: negative carry...(argh)
Fundamentals: OPEC, TRUMPFLATION, Equities boost all based on rumors and no substantial evidence the speed in rise (I don't argue that jobs, homes, and other US domestic indicators showing positive notes since few months back...but still makes no case for discussion). With rate-hike 100% priced in, very difficult say "this movement is only half way" from now to year end. Downside risk-reward much better than upside.Longer term, into 2017, BoJ will account for holding nearly 40% of all JGBs, and be the lead shareholder for 25% of the companies on the Nikkei by the end of 2017 at current pace --- BoJ will be in a tighter position. (Original plan was 2 years from 2013...2017 will mark 4 years, and BoJ tapering is not priced in at all). Also JPY strength can be driven from risk-off events outside of US ---
Fundamentals Risks: Overly hawkish FOMC minutes (indicating more than 3 hikes for 2017) could push assets prices higher on this euphoric rally (2016 did begin in the 119-120 area so still far from breaking even annually). OPEC actually making some significant production cuts. Also market closed in Tokyo and Thanksgiving following that in the US could warrant markets for volatile moves due to lack of liquidity.
Idea: On the 4H Heikin, there has been 4 "knots" in the upward moves. Historically, patterns will show that 1) three-consecutive negative candles or a one large negative candles will show the trigger of the pullback.
Entry: look for the above. If there is a another surge, possible entry points may be 111.50 if it fails to break, or 111.74 if it seems to go through.
SL: Not too high since if it has the power to push up significantly, even 115 is within reach.
TP: Take profit in significant retrace levels, which a portion also being held longer term to the sub-100 area.
Other concerns: negative carry...(argh)
Comment:
trade never realized as there were no entry signals due to strong bullish moves...to be scrapped for a new idea.