this is almost to complicated to exlpain, i'll give the details later. a non conformal analysis of critical points and their alignment on many pairs is revealing a spectacular coordinated move to happen very soon (today/tomorrow). at time of writing its trace has already been detected on usdjpy, cadjpy and usdcad. from this analysis we extract two pairs for which the move might be spectacular because of stiffness property : usdjpy, and usdsek (swedish krona).
the fall on these pairs (and many others) might be almost in straight line !
Comment
⋅
after exiting a beautiful shapped daily traingle in the opposite directions to have usdsek sellers panicking, usdsek is reversing and make a significant at least intermediary move downward. as eursek is capped upside and eurusd is entering a interdiary upward move it means that usdsek is mathematically optimal (falling more than eurusd is going up). we do no now however if it will be spectacular as announced depending on the reaction of eurusd at 1.185. take profit on short usdsek the moment when eurusd hits 1.185 it will be largely enough
Comment
⋅
my previous updated idea is full of typos !!
Comment
⋅
the move starts slowly, but the exit of usdsek (by below, good for us ^^) from the big daily triangle is a very good news. if you are on usdsek, do not forget do monitor eurusd at the same time, if eursud reaches 1.18/1.185 approximately, do not forget to take your profits on usdsek. the reaction of eurusd around 1.18 might be chaotic, meanwhile you will be protected by the fact that eursek is bearish but if eurusd falls again to much it will hinder profits on usdsek.
Comment
⋅
i will replace the usdsek positions by their eursek equivalent, i prefer eliminate the risk of the chaotic usd pair.
Comment
⋅
same comment than the other post on usdjpy, i was indeed spectacular ^^
@muz0786, the only pair where you can risk to short usd now are usdchf and usdjpy but the (very complicated) reasons why include huge risk, instead due to the huge and powerful move that are in play in the market the behavior of pair like eurnzd(=eurjpy /nzdjpy = eurusd * usdjpy = eurchf / nzdchf ec ...) have been computed and simulated so that it anihilates the strong chaotic moves introduces by the three major and floated big pairs (usd, jpy, chf) (surpringly for you eur is not a big pair in a strong theoretical sense too long to explain). hopefully for us with all our possible outcomes for jpy,usd and chf, it gave the same outcome for pairs like eurnzd and other equivalent. during those time of huge volatility and giant moves capturing a lot of people it is better to rely on these "exotic" but safer pairs, waiting for better times where we understand better what is going on the pairs eurusd, usdjpy, usdchf, chfjpy. if you have not launched positions with a pair involving usd or jpy, do no do it, or do it at your own risk, if you have open position, we see a substantial at least temporary correction to the downside for usdjpy
muz0786
⋅
Thanks
To short?
lapin_eliott
⋅
@muz0786, yes there is a huge anticipation of rate hike from the swedish riksbank, market will have to anticipatedly pre price it within eursek now, while the chaotic policy of the fed makes me fear that the impact on usdsek will keep usdsek unclear
@muz0786, to be noted though that a shot on eursek brings daily positive cost to keep the position overnight, while eurnzd and euraud are the two big exceptions, you are paid to keep a short overnight, this is why by far shorting eurnzd and euraud are the best deals
muz0786
⋅
@lapin_eliott, thanks for that il wait for pull back on eurnzd