timwest
Short

US Dollar/Japanese Yen - USDJPY - 4 hour bar - Time at Mode ....

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
1497 24 27
I was asked to do an analysis of this chart and here is what I have come up with. I do not follow this market and I'm simply showing you how to analyze these bars using the "time at mode" concepts that I have show in other markets on other time frames.

See if you can follow along with the logic.

1. A trend forms.
2. A trading range forms.
3. A breakout of that range occurs (when an entire bar is above the "mode" of the range.
4. A continuation move happens which takes as much time as was at the "mode" AND/OR the price range of the range.
5. A retest of the "mode" occurs after the time expires or else the market is extra strong and will likely make another range and another trend.
6. The power of the market is proven by the market moving in the direction of the breakout in the time suggested.
7. A reversal of the trend is possible if there is no new high (in an uptrend) for 5 bars. (or a new low in a downtrend for 5 bars). At the end of the 5-bars where there is a new trend in place, the price must be above the new 5-day mode to be an uptrend, or below the 5-day mode to be a downtrend.
8. Continue this logic as long as possible.
9. When you are in a consolidation phase that is more than 25 bars at one price, move up to the next time frame (from days to week, or from weeks to months. Move up by a factor of 5.
10. When you are in a consolidation, you may also have multiple trends occurring at once - that is what a triangle, or sideways pattern is like.
11. The more choppy action you get and losses your sustain trading from failed breakouts, the market will soon be ready for a move. Be patient. Nothing is perfect in life and especially not in markets.
12. Be willing to learn how to add to your winners and learn to keep your trading size the same, even after a losing period. If you trade small after a losing streak, you have to increase your trading size quickly or else you will never climb out of the losing streak.
13. Send me any trades to review - I'm happy to help you learn this methodology.
14. Send 10% of your profits to charity!! Life is about helping others.

Trade well - and send me your thoughts.

Tim 11:20AM 107.93... I started typing at 108.13... I wonder if this trade will pan out...
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Very nice !! fANTASTIC !!
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Pretty good trade so far...
+2 Reply
Amazing, love the trayectory's accuracy :D Gets me every time. Is that on purpose?
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Note there is a terminal at the high - and that could spell the end of the end of the end for the rally in the Dollar vs the Yen - just a simple observation from my knowledge of Elliott Wave Theory from Glenn Neely's "Mastering Elliott Wave". There is more to consider, no doubt, as noted by David Alcinder @4xForecaster who has some excellent charts posted here on USDJPY. Teamwork = power.
snapshot
+2 Reply
That is the most beautiful chart analysis ive ever seen.
+1 Reply
Indeed, the weekly ending diagonal and subsequent smaller versions of the same thing are interesting...signaling trend exhaustion I guess. Shame I got out too early and was busy to find a second entry :/
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It is tracing along with the forecast so far...
+1 Reply
Dollar weakening and/or Yen Going up is quite probably. If you check Nikkei, it just breached a long term resistance line (or swimming in it)...and it can be called overbought for a decline. With this Yen reached its multi-year support. It can be observed that some relationship exists between rising yen, and stagnating US markets. But surely rising yen is not good for Nikkei, and it does fit all together then - Nikkei dives back in trend, Yen rises, USD/Yen goes down for now (as i dont see dollar going much higher from here in near future, a good run it was already).
+1 Reply
Well, this does look like a corrective pattern, maybe an Elliot Wave flat? Either way, we'll have to see how things pan out, many believe the downtrend in USD will continue further. Interesting either way, can't ignore these things.
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timwest PRO IvanLabrie
It very well could be, and all you'd need to see to confirm that is a move up through the midpoint of wave 4 of the c-wave decline.
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