Kumowizard
Short

USDJPY - Risk off without JPY strength? From Carry to Scary

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
292 2 9
I've spent more than 15 years with investing and trading in financial makrets, but I have never seen any major global risk-off without massive carry trade unwinds. As JPY has been under selling pressure due to all well known reasons since 2012, it has obviously become a funding ccy. What do you think Japanese investors (including professionals and households) have been buying since they were able to sel all their worthless JGB holdings back to their Central Bank? It is obvious that besided buying in Nikkei they accumulated lot of international assets, including US, European and Emerging market bonds and equities . Once the selloff in these assets spill over, the world's biggest "carry trade" will reverse and will become a Scary Trade, with collapsing USDJPY             (actually with JPY strength against all ccys).

By the way, Japan's macro figures have really started to improve this year. So it will be an either/or game. Either due to increasing risk-off, or due to macro improvement (with BoJ to step back a bit) JPY will stregthen sooner or later.

Tehnicals:

Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is still bullish , with pull back phase. Very important to see what Price will do now at this Kijun Sen attack, as Price has not been below the 26 weeks average since August/2014!
- Heikin Ashi is increasing bearish!
- Supports are at 120,85 / 117,75 / 115

Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is neutral to bearish , Price is attacking Kumo.
- Heikin Ashi is firm bearish .

I hold some short in this pair already from 123 average .
MaryJane
a year ago
thx for sharing
Will the support <a href="/u/121/" target="_blank">@121</a>,5 hold and the bullish wedge be triggered?

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Uran0s
a year ago
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