USDJPY: breakout or reversal

OANDA:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
Pro´s for bull breakout:
1. Up trend and retraced the drop in 2018. Uptrend from mid 2018.
2. Fed going more Dovish. The dollar big moves have been motivated by FED rate hikes as most other countries have not hikes their rates. And been move dovish. And strong American economy have helped the dollar, and strong markets in the US.
3. Us markets is going down. As the US markets haven start to going down, 2019 looks like a recovery year with lower returns and perhaps a calmer market.

Pros for bear breakout:
1. A lot of resistance can be found at 114.5 - 115.0 and the market have reversed four times the last 1.5 years at those levels. If nothing fundamental changes around US and the dollar i see that USDJPY reverses and test the support at 108 ( long term ), with first stops and support at 111.5- 112.0.
2. Us stock market revers after the selloff and continue to in a bull market. And American economy keeps going strong. As the Fed is hawkish it will not be a surprise to see more rate hikes, as they forecast more hikes in 2019 before turning a bit more dovish with weaker numbers in the latest report. Pros for bull market: US-CHINA trade war is resolved, EU solves it problems with BREXIT, Italy and France.
3. Technical it lies in a bigger downtrend and is doing a false breakout to test the resistance, fails and goes back to follow the bigger downward trend to 108.


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