1. My plan for next week focuses on point "3." from the previous post - I am waiting for risk-on or risk-off assets to confirm investor conviction by using USDJPY as a barometer for net risk sentiment. Despite the market uncertainty and high UJ last week traded within a 200pip range for the between 101.3-103.3. Therefore, I consider a 60pip break of either level to confirm the conviction to a sentiment e.g. 60pips higher is risk-on (Yen selling), 60pips Lower is risk-off (Yen buying).
So of the two possibilities for this week (based on the previous post) Most likely i think is:
1) Global risk continues its recovery as I ask myself what possible risks/ events are there that could tip risk-off sentiment? My answer is none. However, there are several arguments for a risk-on bias e.g. 1) easing continues to offer risk higher e.g. a dovish RBA (5th) and BOE meeting (14th) price JPY lower and UJ higher
2) Implied vol continues dropping below realised vol , aiding sentiment.
3) Brexit uncertainty continues its de-risking/ pricing as its unlikelihood increases. Further, I think Equities have another week of rallying to price before uncertainty selling will become a factor.
If Yen carries on Ranging I advise buying UJ at lows of the range e.g. between 101.3-101.9 - or you could buy at any price in the range as I have a target of 106 in the near-term and 110+ in the next 4+wks.
Alternatively, I advise placing BUY STOP orders at 103.9-104.2 (level that confirms a risk-on breakout) as there will be 80% of UJ short Stop-Losses at this level, so we will likely see a short squeeze take us 200pips up instantly once UJ trades to at or about 104.
I like owning UJ structurally in the medium term as even if UJ falls lower in the near term which is unlikely (what risk is likely to drive it lower?) as UJ trading at or below 101 (and the further it falls) the more likely the BOJ will be to launch emergency FX intervention and/or near term lower UJ increases odds of an aggressive BOJ cut at its July 28th meeting - which will make UJ trade 500pips+ higher, dependent on the measures/ aggressiveness taken.
For some background/ support for the UJ higher trade
1. based on BOJ easing, recently JPY retail sales disappointed at -1.9% vs -1.6%, as did which was seen at -0.4% nationally for CPI and Core and -0.5% for the same in Tokyo + BOJ's own Core measure continued its strong MoM downtrend at 0.8% (from 0.9% last) - consistently unresponsive is the single biggest driver for BOJ easing/ cutting policy, and the poor has been problematic since the last cut in January 2016 so this gives further weight to another cut, especially since it was 6+ months ago.
- Also BOJ Kuroda and JPY Govt Aso and Abe had several emergency meetings last week as a result of the Brexit vote/ JPY appreciation, in which they discussed FX levels, although taking no action, such rhetoric and actions imply and give likelihood that the BOJ will take substantial action in July.
- Technically, UJ has been oversold for several weeks, even if UJ higher isnt structurally long, we should at least be able to realise a 600-800pip recovery rally before moving lower again.
- USDJPY Realised is trading higher than implied ( signal) with 2wk and 1mth at 19.64% & 15.6% vs implied's trading at 11.25% & 13.43% + there are some large notional OTM call strikes at 104.2 and 105, indicating the market may have a bias. Also, the UJ 1wk/1m 25 Delta Risk Reversals Trade at apprx -1.6%, and falling, indicating the market is becoming more by 1) being positioned long in the spot market but buying less downside option coverage and/or 2) Speculative Demand for UJ downside puts is falling.
*Read my previous post "RANGE BOUND - USDJPY: IS THIS GLOBAL RISK RECOVERY REAL? PART 1" for analysis of last week and mo