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ANALYSIS: USDJPY: MAJOR Trend Change Forthcoming?

FX_IDC:USDJPY   US DOLLAR / YEN
I think I could say with certainty that a majority of traders have been anticipating this trend change for a long while now. Many have called for the end of the current uptrend much, much earlier and many times over just to get burned as it just continued to advance. Well, now it's my turn! Actually, I had called for the end of the current trend about 1 month ago (see Related Ideas: "USDJPY: Analysis - Why Is It Going Down?") and also 8 days ago when a bearish cypher was completed (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS: USDJPY: Filled Bearish Cypher Could mark the top. "). So really, in this analysis, I am just repeating myself and re-affirming that a MAJOR trend-reversal is/has taken place. Only by going to new highs yet again would that prove me wrong. But if I am correct, then RIGHT NOW is the time to get SHORT for a long ride down! So let me show you what and why I am bearish now....

WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW?
I'm gonna keep this part nice and short because I have already posted this main chart as a separate post calling for a trade (see Related Ideas:"TRADE: USDJPY: SELL @124.560 Completion of Triangle + 2 Patterns"). You can go see that post for the explanation of the current price action.

OVERVIEW - Monthly Chart
snapshot

WEEKLY CHART
snapshot

DAILY CHART - Wave Count & Two Patterns
snapshot

4HR CHART - Showing 2 Patterns
I've also posted this as a separate post (see Related Ideas: "TRADE: USDJPY:2 LONG-TERM Patterns Could Yield 1000+ pips") so no need to waste valuable typing space on explaining this. Just go see that post....
TRADE: USDJPY:2 LONG-TERM Patterns Could Yield 1000+ pips

CONCLUSION
There aren't going to be an overwhelming amount of people who agree with me I think. Why? It's the "boy who cried wolf" effect. So many times, traders have thought the top was in before and got burned that there is
top fatigue" happening. Trader's are now being very cautious about getting SHORT because the "top may be in". Heard that before? The price action at the current highs confirm this. You don't see a HUGE drop going on because the bears aren't convinced yet due to all of the above I just said. Instead, prices are declining steadily and dare I say STEALTHILY. As price continues to decline, volume should pick up and then you'll see prices accelerate downwards. But for now, bulls and bears will continue to battle with bears slowly taking over. This week's FOMC could play a BIG part in either accelerating prices downwards or shooting up, making new highs and proving me wrong. AGAIN, only by making new highs will my overall count be proven wrong. Then I'll need to re-evaluate yet again. For now, I am already in SHORT on this pair by way of a completed cypher pattern I posted about 8 days ago (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS: USDJPY: Filled Bearish Cypher Could mark the top. ").

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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StacoM
a year ago
very nice analysis, i thank you so much for your logical arguments.
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EverythingForex PRO StacoM
a year ago
you're welcome!
Reply
donaldsaw
a year ago
This is some great analysis. Thanks mate
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EverythingForex PRO donaldsaw
a year ago
Yw!
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