YaKa

USDJPY - Reconciliation with a foreseen correction on equities

FX_IDC:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
379 5 4
The move on USDJPY             looks impulsive and would be "confirmed" if 119.75 on close with target 124ish.

Also I see USD potentially appreciating against EUR to 1.07 and EURGBP             falling further to 0.72.

But I see equities correcting from here and have difficulties seeing that happpening with USDJPY             climbing further.

Solutions:
1 - I am wrong on equities - Hope/think not.
2 - equities fall while usdjpy             increases - Why not.
3 - equities fall while usdjpy             reaches back to 116 a last time but eurusd             falls at the same time... and eurjpy             properly collapses.
4 - Equities fall and usd fall at the same time

(3) is my best guess right now.

Conclusion: although the friday move looks very impulsive, i would not chase it higher. I would not short it either as i am short equities already.

Neutral but skeptical about the long.
XLU, TLT, IYR took at big red marubozu
Reply
Yacine,
there are expectation that Yellen could raise interest rate sooner which is why it shot up last friday
+1 Reply
ForexTools jangseohee
:)
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie jangseohee
Small rally, then massive failure and back into channel? I'm fine with capturing that last leg up.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie IvanLabrie
+1 Reply
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