The move on USDJPY looks impulsive and would be "confirmed" if 119.75 on close with target 124ish.
Also I see USD potentially appreciating against EUR to 1.07 and EURGBP falling further to 0.72.
But I see equities correcting from here and have difficulties seeing that happpening with USDJPY climbing further.
Solutions: 1 - I am wrong on equities - Hope/think not. 2 - equities fall while usdjpy increases - Why not. 3 - equities fall while usdjpy reaches back to 116 a last time but eurusd falls at the same time... and eurjpy properly collapses. 4 - Equities fall and usd fall at the same time
(3) is my best guess right now.
Conclusion: although the friday move looks very impulsive, i would not chase it higher. I would not short it either as i am short equities already.
Neutral but skeptical about the long.
Comments
jangseohee
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Yacine,
there are expectation that Yellen could raise interest rate sooner which is why it shot up last friday
ForexTools
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:)
IvanLabrie
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Small rally, then massive failure and back into channel? I'm fine with capturing that last leg up.
there are expectation that Yellen could raise interest rate sooner which is why it shot up last friday