Waiting for an Impulse Ahead of the Fed Decision #USDJPY

USDJPY remains in a steady bullish structure and is holding near local highs amid a strong US dollar and the continued accommodative policy of the Bank of Japan. At the same time, the market is entering a waiting phase ahead of the key event of the week — the Federal Reserve decision, which is expected to sharply increase volatility.

The market is pricing in a 0.25% rate cut by the Fed, but the decisive factor for further direction will be the tone of the press conference. Comments on inflation, economic conditions, and the future path of monetary policy will shape the medium-term outlook.

Technically, the pair is consolidating below the resistance zone near recent highs, while maintaining a bullish structure above key moving averages. There is no sign of aggressive selling pressure at this stage.

Key logic

• Before the Fed decision — a high probability of range-bound trading and false moves.
• After the decision — a breakout from consolidation and the formation of a directional impulse.
• The main focus is on the reaction at the upper boundary of the range and volume behavior

Scenarios

• Bullish: breakout above local resistance and impulsive continuation higher after Fed signals.
  Corrective: pullback toward the nearest support area while preserving the overall bullish structure.
• Bearish scenario is only possible in case of a sharp shift in Fed rhetoric and a breakdown of the current structure.

USDJPY is at a decision point, and today’s Fed meeting will be the key trigger for the next directional move in the pair.