I feel your stop is very short. Now greater chance for dwnside
waterman
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But thanks for sharing the idea.
Forextra_official
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Yes you are correct on this. I had to give some more room for the price to move, specialy because of the news event. My view isnt changed, I agree with you that the chance that price will go lower is higher now. Thanks for your comment! I appriciate that a lot!
impiouscapital
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Are you in the trade already? What happens when the fundamentals change? Like the US jobs data in 30 minutes is expected to be positive pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.8%. This would not work then. Cos you can then expect a higher uptick spike...
Forextra_official
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Yes I'm in the trade still..
There are always to sides on a coin. So yes you are true, if the News will push the USD higher than this idea will not work. That is the risk. And I have to take my losses when the stoploss will get hit.
But almost nobody knows the news in front, so you have to make an expectation from the information you know. And I get these information from the charts. From there I will calculate my odds, and if the Risk / Reward ratio is in my favour it is worth the trade..
The chart shows me. The chance is higher that USDJPY will move down. On the larger timeframes we are in a negative trend. We see divergence on the RSI. And we are in a resistance zone.