Trumps Transition to Mr. Nice Guy

FX:USDMXN   U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso
1088 8
Today (Monday 01/23/2017) is the "first" offical working day for Donald J. Trump as the 45th President of the USA.

Investors all over the world have been scared about a sell off starting by the inauguration day and they still are. But there is no "crash" or sell off obviously.

Donald Trump´s approval rates are the lowest since 1940 a U.S. President ever had at this time. The inauguration viewers at the mall have also been low no matter about any discussion based on "alternative fact´s". What investors might underestimate is that the Trump Adminstration is trying to deliver a more positive picture. Expect that Donald Trump might be more moderate than traders are expecting.

Watch now the Mexican Peso closely as an indicator to follow up if "fear" might go out of the markets in the comming days and week. If USDMXN goes down stockmarkets will go up.

On the other hand the Fear & Greed Index showing according to higher Vix and Cboe Intraday Put Call Ratios that there is a lot of put buying going on. The F&G is showing that the US Stockmarkets are not overbought even the most indices are only a couple of points away from new all time highs.

The F&G is showing today "extreme fear" if you look at the Cboe Intraday Put Call Ratio 5-day moving avarage:

Quote: "During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 31.55% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this is still among the highest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme fear on the part of investors.

Last changed Jan 20 from a Fear rating

Updated Jan 23 at 3:24pm"

Comment: Who is afraid of Donald Trump?

Do not answer "no one". Put Buying, the last CoT-Report and the the most (technical) "analysis" you can read anywhere in the world (!) (or on showing a clear view: Stockmarkets will go down, starting by the inauguration day. Reason? Donald Trump!

And here are the fact´s: Donald Trump´s transition to Mr. Nice Guy just startet exactly at this day when the overwelming majority of traders expected a sell off to start. Now they betting on lower stockmarket prices and guess what will happens next, starting by tomorrow.

Quote: "White House spokesman Sean Spicer: 'Our intention is never to lie to you'
Dan Mangan" | @_DanMangan
52 Mins Ago

"I believe we have to be honest with the American people," Spicer said at a White House news conference, two days after being criticized for claiming that certain media outlets had misreported the size of the crowd to witness Trump's inauguration.

"I think sometimes we can disagree with the facts," Spicer said. "Our intention is never to lie to you."
"There are certain things that we may miss, may not fully understand when we come out, but our intention is never to lie to you," he said.
Side-by-side photos of Trump's inauguration and that of President Barack Obama in 2009 show many more people on the National Mall during Obama's inauguration.

Comment: The reason why stockmarkets will go higher. This article was published/updated only a few minutes ago and is showing investors view:

President Donald Trump is set to unleash a cascade of stock-market anxiety

Here’s how Mark Grant, chief strategist of Hilltop Securities put it in a Thursday note: “In my almost 43 years on Wall Street, I am not sure that I have ever seen so much consternation than at present. It is not just differences of opinion but it is a quite real fear of the unknown, I suppose. People just don't know what they are getting into or where the country is heading. No surprise, I think, as tomorrow the Present will have a material break with the Past and the Future is a calculated guess.”

Published: Jan 23, 2017 4:03 p.m. ET
Comment: 01/25/2017
The Mexican Peso is going down. The VIX ---> Fear Factor follows ---> at once:
Comment: 01/25/2017
Gold is going down as well. I follow USDMXN, the VIX and Gold to indicate how low this upmove might go.
Comment: Jan. 25, 2017:
Donald Trump is saying in a speech to homeland security agents and employees that he will work together with Mexiko to build "the wall". Mexiko will benefit from lower crime rates and lower immigrants comming from south america. Donald Trump did not mention in a single word, that Mexiko need to pay for the wall. Trump said also a strong Mexican Economy is good for U.S.

Finally Donald Trump said he wants to become President for "everyone".

Cls.:Donald Trump is making a U-turn changing to "Mr. Nice Guy".

quot erat demonstrandum
Comment: Jan. 25 2017

Mexican peso rallies as Trump unveils border security plans

Published: Jan 25, 2017 3:19 p.m. ET

The dollar weakened against the Mexican peso on Wednesday after President Donald Trump introduced his plans for tightening security along the U.S.'s southern border. The dollar USDMXN, -1.9050% fell 1.6% to 21.14 pesos, compared with 21.51 pesos late Tuesday in New York. Trump signed two executive orders pertaining to immigration: one authorizing his promised border wall and another providing more resources to immigration authorities inside the U.S. In his remarks, Trump emphasized that a strong Mexican economy is good for the U.S., and that he would maintain a productive relationship with the U.S.'s southern neighbor. Source:
Comment: Jan 25, 2017

U.S. share indexes set record highs as Trump policies spur investors
Stock Markets24 minutes ago (Jan 25, 2017 03:54PM ET) - U.S. share indexes rose to records on Wednesday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting 20,000 for the first time on Wednesday as strong earnings and President Donald Trump's pro-growth initiatives reignited a post-election rally.
Trump has made several business-friendly decisions since taking office on Friday, including signing executive orders to reduce regulatory burden on domestic manufacturers and clearing the way for the construction of two oil pipelines.
The Dow was last quoted at 20,072.13, up 0.80%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.85% to 2,299.35 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite rose 1.01% to 5,657.79.
Trump has also proposed tax cuts and higher fiscal spending working with a Republican-controlled Congress.
Comment: Jan 25 2017:

Donald Trump really needs to be carefull about not to loose supporters in Congress or Senat.

Quote: "Republican leaders also have to explain and build support among members for a complex tax reform package, backed by Ryan, that includes an unusual proposal to encourage exports and penalize imports through the tax code. A framework for legislation could surface as early as next month.

The retreat will provide an opportunity for Trump and his staff to build a rapport with lawmakers, many of whom have had little contact with the president, a New York businessman who had no experience in government before taking office. Some lawmakers were rattled this week as the White House grappled with controversies over Trump's statements over the size of the crowd at his inauguration and his allegations of voter fraud in the election. "I hope he gets more focused on policy," Congressman Dent said. "Crowd size doesn't matter."
Comment: Jan 26 2017: USDMXN now up 0,6%.

Donald Trump today is bashing Mexiko again after yesterday saying he wants to have Mexico a "strong economy".

"Todays" view of Donald Trump is another one:

Quote: "The U.S. has a 60 billion dollar trade deficit with Mexico. It has been a one-sided deal from the beginning of NAFTA with massive numbers...
of jobs and companies lost. If Mexico is unwilling to pay for the badly needed wall, then it would be better to cancel the upcoming meeting."
Source: The U.S. has a 60 billion dollar trade deficit with Mexico. It has been a one-sided deal from the beginning of NAFTA with massive numbers...

Expect another statement with an other opinion from Trump in the next 48 hours.
Comment: Jan 26 2017:
Now keep your attention to the re-tweets:
@realDonaldTrump But you make your suits there...

This tweet is showing a picture:

Donald J. Trump Signature Collection, ---> MADE IN MEXICO
Comment: Jan 24 2017 Donald Trump Approval Ratings are a Record Low

Donald Trump
Donald Trump’s First Presidential Approval Ratings Are a Record Low

Jan 24, 2017

Days after his inauguration, President Donald Trump has set record for receiving the lowest initial job approval rating and the highest disapproval rating.

Trump is the first elected U.S. president to start out with a job approval rating below 50% in the history of Gallup surveys, which date back to Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1953. Just 45% of respondents said they approve of the job Trump is doing, while 45% disapprove, according to a Gallup poll. By comparison, former President Barack Obama began his term with a 68% approval rating, according to Gallup polling. George W. Bush began with a 57% approval rating. Former Presidents George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan had 51% approval ratings at the start of their terms, but they had much lower disapproval ratings—just 6% and 13%, respectively. Source:
Comment: One of the re-tweets to Donald Trump - if ever true this might undermine Donald Trumps Politics by himself once more.
Comment: Jan 26 2017

Mexican President cancel meeting with Donald Trump.
USDMXN is up 1,5%

Expect Donald Trumps approval rates to go down further.
Expect also Donald Trump to fire Steve Bannon in the comming days or weeks and to set a more moderate tone.
Comment: Jan 26 2017

TRUMP: "Mexican President and I agreed to cancel meeting."

USDMXN falling at once.
Comment: Todays "action": Stockmarkets following USMXN

Forex - Mexican peso hits day’s lows after Trump tweets
Forex1 hour ago (Jan 26, 2017 09:35AM ET) - The Mexican peso fell to the day’s lows on Thursday after President Donald Trump threatened on Twitter to cancel talks with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto if Mexico is unwilling to pay for a U.S.-Mexican border wall.
Peña Nieto is scheduled to meet with Trump next Tuesday to discuss the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement and immigration.

USD/MXN rose 0.58% to 21.19, pulling back from three-week lows of 20.86.

“The U.S. has a 60 billion dollar trade deficit with Mexico. It has been a one-sided deal from the beginning of NAFTA with massive numbers of jobs and companies lost,” Trump tweeted. “If Mexico is unwilling to pay for the badly needed wall, then it would be better to cancel the upcoming meeting.”
The tweets came after Trump on Wednesday signed two executive orders, one authorizing the construction of a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border and the other to significantly boost the U.S. Border Patrol. Hours later, Peña Nieto said he "regrets and rejects" Trump's orders because "Mexico does not believe in walls." He also reiterated that Mexico will not pay for any wall and pledged to protect Mexicans in the US. The peso hit a record low against the dollar earlier this year and is still down around 2.5% against the dollar for 2017.
Comment: Jan 26 2017: Trump Approval Rate 36%.

Richard Nixons (last day in office) approval ratewas 24%.

Quote: Poll shows Trump with 36 percent job approval for first five days

By Steven Shepard 01/26/17 01:33 PM EST

Thirty-six percent of voters approve of the way President Donald Trump is handling his job in his first week, according to a new poll that reflects a sharp divide along partisan lines. The Quinnipiac University poll, conducted over the first five nights of Trump’s presidency — last Friday through Wednesday — shows that a larger percentage, 44 percent, disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Nineteen percent are undecided in the poll, which was released Thursday.
Comment: Jan 27 2017

Watch todays Lindsey Grahams comment on twitter

Border security yes, tariffs no. Mexico is 3rd largest trading partner. Any tariff we can levy they can levy. Huge barrier to econ growth /1
1,092 replies 7,528 retweets 14,604 likes

Simply put, any policy proposal which drives up costs of Corona, tequila, or margaritas is a big-time bad idea. Mucho Sad. (2)

Now check how many Senators Donald Trump can affort to loose more:

Lindsey Graham made the point: Not Mexiko is paying "The Wall". It is the U.S. consumer. Guess how many more senators might vote with a "NO".

USDMXN follow this logic for sure. The peso today again strengthen against the US Dollar - no matter what Donald Trump is telling or "repeating".
Comment: Jan 27 2017
LIMA (Reuters) - Peru and Colombia vowed to stand with Mexico as the country faces an uncertain economic future and grapples with a crisis with the United States just days into U.S. President Donald Trump's administration.

Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski said members of the Latin American trade bloc the Pacific Alliance must double down on efforts to open markets and strengthen ties as they navigate the "turbulent waters" of protectionist rhetoric.

Peru, Colombia, Chile and Mexico formed the Pacific Alliance in 2011 to remove obstacles to trade and orient their markets to the fast-growing Asia-Pacific region. "Right now one of us is facing serious difficulties that are not of its own making," Kuczynski said in reference to Mexico as he sat beside his Colombian counterpart on an official visit. "We have to stand together on our ideals, on global trade which has done us so much good." Though Kuczynski did not mention Trump by name, his comments were some of the first rumblings of displeasure with the Trump administration from traditional U.S. allies in Latin America.

Trump has insisted he will force Mexico to pay for a wall between the two countries to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking. He has also threatened to slap taxes on Mexican imports and tear up the regional trade deal NAFTA if he cannot renegotiate it to ensure more benefits for the United States. The Mexican peso has been rocked by tensions between the two countries, firming on Friday after Trump said he had a friendly phone call with Mexican President Pena Nieto. "There are clouds of uncertainty around the world," Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos said. "We want to join the call of countries that adhere to the principles that have been so good for the world: free trade, respect for treaties... multilateral solutions." Santos said he spoke with Pena Nieto by phone on Thursday, when the Mexican leader announced he canceled a meeting with Trump as a diplomatic crisis over the proposed wall deepened.

Kuczynski, a former investment banker who spent years living in the United States, said the four countries in the Pacific Alliance represent a market of some 200 million people and that each has emerged from economic crisis in the past by opening markets to global trade. "Of course there are costs to global trade, of course there are job losses, but it's also clear that the benefits are bigger," Kuczynski said.
Source: /
(Reporting by Mitra Taj and Marco Aquino; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)
Comment: Jan. 28 2017

The European Union is working on a free trade agreement with Mercosur since allmost 15 years. Donald Trump agressive boarder tax politic is excellerating this negotiations obviously.


CETA clears hurdle in European Union parliament

A planned EU-Canada free-trade deal moved closer to reality on Tuesday after a key committee advised the European Parliament to give its backing after months of protests and heated debate.

The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) is seen as a test of Europe’s ability to forge future trade accords and as a counterweight to anticipated protectionism under new U.S. President Donald Trump. “It’s more than just a free-trade treaty with Canada. It’s a statement about how we relate with the rest of the world,” said Sorin Moisa, CETA co-ordinator for the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats group, whose members have been divided over the pact. “We want to shape rather than withdraw from the world, and all the more so after Trump,” he told Reuters in an interview. Source:
Comment: Jan 30 2017 Trum pis going to loose the Senat

McCain, Graham lead in GOP criticism of Trump ban ...
Comment: Jan 30 2017 Trump is going to loose the Senat

McCain, Graham lead in GOP criticism of Trump ban ...

Republican Sens. John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina broke the GOP silence on Capitol Hill on Sunday to issue a scathing condemnation of President Donald Trump's ban on travel to the United States from seven Muslim-majority countries. ....
... t was the strongest criticism Trump has faced yet from the right, as congressional leaders largely deflect questions about the ban and aides say Trump is doing exactly what he pledged he'd do on the campaign trail. ...
.... That could change this week when lawmakers return to Washington and the Senate considers several of Trump's Cabinet nominees' confirmation ...

....On Capitol Hill, many GOP offices were non-responsive in the 24 hours after the executive order was signed, though more are now making statements.
The reason, according to GOP sources in both chambers, was two-fold: They were left out of the loop by the White House before the travel ban was announced, and they see political risk coming from both directions.
"Support it and get hit, oppose it and get hit," one GOP source said. "There will be time for discussion about this. Right now we'll let the administration take the lead." ...
Comment: Jan 30 2017

Business News | Mon Jan 30, 2017 | 9:24am EST
Goldman Sachs CEO says bank does not support Trump travel ban

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) CEO Lloyd Blankfein told employees that President Donald Trump's order to halt arrivals from seven Muslim-majority countries was not a policy the bank endorsed, according to a source familiar with the matter. "This is not a policy we support, and I would note that it has already been challenged in federal court, and some of the order has been enjoined at least temporarily," Blankfein told employees in a voicemail on Sunday.
Blankfein said Goldman Sachs would work to minimize potential disruptions to employees and their families caused by Trump's order, according to a transcript seen by Reuters. Most U.S. corporate bosses have stayed silent on Trump's immigration curbs, underscoring the sensitivities around opposing policies that could provoke a backlash from the White House.
Comment: 30 Jan 2016

Expect Steve Bannon to get fired by Trump in the next weeks or month.

Quote: Mexicans are boycotting US Products to protest Trump's wall tax
Leticia Miranda
2 Hours Ago

Just days after the Trump Administration said it was considering taxing Mexican imports to pay for a border wall, Mexican consumers are vowing to stop buying US products.

Mexico is teeming with US restaurants, coffeeshops, stores and products.

Walmart's Mexico division, for example, is the largest outside the U.S. with 2,379 stores, including 256 Walmart Supercenters. Starbuck's and McDonald's have more than 500 stores each across Mexico. Per capita, Mexicans are also the number one consumers of Coca-Cola in the world, according to the SMI Group.
Comment: Jan 31 2017

Quote: Justice department lawyers instructed not to defend Trump migration order – reports

The acting US attorney general Sally Yates has instructed Justice Department lawyers not to defend President Donald Trump’s executive order banning travel for people from seven Muslim-majority countries, according to reports. Yates was appointed by Barack Obama, and is serving as the acting head of the Justice Department until Jeff Sessions’ likely confirmation. Source
Comment: Jan 30 2017

Quote: Asia Pacific nations are tilting closer toward China as Trump declares 'America First'

There are strong signs that countries in Asia and the Pacific region are turning away from the United States and tilting toward China as the Trump administration emphasizes "America First."
Perhaps the most alarming signals are coming from Australia, a country that has deep cultural and historical ties to the United States but which depends on exports of raw materials to China. Donald Trump is deeply unpopular in Australia, which like the United States is an immigrant nation. Last week, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said he was open to the idea of China taking the place of the United States in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP. The Obama administration had led the effort to build the TPP, and had designed the trading bloc with the U.S. at its center. But President Donald Trump effectively killed the TPP immediately after taking office. Source:
Comment: Feb 01 2017

If ever there might be any "border tax" Republican lawmakers need to agree to higher prices payed by U.S. consumers. They won´t do this.

With a crippling border tax looming, retailers head to Washington
Krystina Gustafson | @KrystinaGustafs
1 Hour Ago

A Republican proposal that would tax retailers on goods they import and sell in the U.S. still has more questions than answers. But that hasn't stopped industry leaders and trade groups from increasing the pressure they're putting on Washington, D.C., as they fight against a policy critics say could put some of these companies out of business. A "large number of CEOs" have been to D.C. in recent months, to share their concerns about a so-called border adjustment tax, David French, senior vice president for government relations at the National Retail Federation, told CNBC.
When factoring in visits from CFOs, those numbers are "easily" in the double digits, French said. Separately, the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA) on Wednesday formally launched a national campaign to fight the border tax, called Americans for Affordable Products. A vice president for that trade group recently told Jefferies that participants across the industry have reached out about the issue, "including retailers who typically do not engage in public policy issues," Jefferies analyst Randal Konik said.

RILA's members include major retailers like Target, Home Depot, J.C. Penney, Wal-Mart and Nike. Of those retailers, only Target and Home Depot responded to CNBC's request for comment. A Home Depot spokesman said the company is "still studying the possible scenarios and impacts." A Target spokeswoman echoed that statement, saying the retailer is "closely monitoring the ongoing discussions on tax reform and the impact of the House's proposed border adjustability tax on our guests." The spokeswoman confirmed to CNBC that Target CEO Brian Cornell was one of the industry executives who went to Washington to speak out about the tax, as was first reported by Politico.
"We can confirm that traveled to D.C. to participate in conversations with lawmakers but we are not going to get into specifics of those conversations," Target spokeswoman Dustee Tucker Jenkins said. However, a source close to the matter told CNBC that Target's message is centered on the impact a border tax would have on its shoppers, who would end up paying more for the company's products. The retailer is also emphasizing the fact that 99 percent of its workforce is based in the U.S., and that a border tax would slow its plans to open small, urban stores that would employ more Americans.

"In the last decade, no issue has galvanized the industry more than this one," Brian Dodge, senior executive vice president of public affairs at RILA, told CNBC.

Details regarding a potential border tax are largely a question mark, though a 20 percent adjustment has been most frequently discussed. The White House has floated the idea of using an import tax as a way to pay for the wall President Donald Trump wants built between the U.S. and Mexico. Yet while some argue that such a tax would increase the value of the dollar, and therefore lower the cost of imports, analysts maintain that most apparel and footwear brands would be forced to raise prices for consumers. "Any border tax will of course lead to higher prices for the consumer. That's just the reality that we'll have to face if it comes to that," Coach CEO Victor Luis told CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Tuesday.
Comment: Feb 01.2017

Trump´s Harley-Davidson visit canceled

If ever Trump would had showed up there on thrusday international customers would had canceled theire orders - this might be the truth behind all. This example reminds to Barack Obama when he had low approval rates as well. Dem. Lawmaker didn´t want him to show up in theire election circels in this periode.


Trump trip canceled; Harley-Davidson wasn't comfortable with likely protests, per source

Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump will not head to Milwaukee for a previously scheduled visit of a Harley-Davidson factory after the company decided it wasn't comfortable hosting him amid planned protests, an administration official said Tuesday.
Trump had been scheduled to tour the factory Thursday where he also planned to sign executive orders related to American manufacturing. The visit had not been publicly announced, but White House staffers were already on the ground in Milwaukee setting up for Trump's planned visit to the factory on Thursday. White House spokeswoman Stephanie Grisham confirmed Trump is not expected to go to Milwaukee on Thursday. Harley-Davidson issued a statement Tuesday night saying they "don't have, nor did we have, a scheduled visit from the President this week at any of our facilities." Source:
Comment: Februar 02 2017: U.S. Retailers starts to fight back.


Stop the Border Adjustment Tax
Don´t make hard working families pay more on essantiel products

Tell Congress No To The Border Adjustment Tax
Make your voice heard on how this misguided proposal will impact you, your family, and jobs in your local community.

Take Action

Comment: Feb 02 2017: Mexicans not afraid of Trump´s border tax

In avocado country, Mexicans not afraid of Trump tariff threats
Economy37 minutes ago (Feb 02, 2017 02:30PM ET)

By Adriana Barrera

URUAPAN, Mexico (Reuters) - Avocado farmers in the rolling hillsides of Mexico's Michoacan state are not worried for now by U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to tear up a trade deal which could make the favorite snack of Super Bowl viewers more expensive.
Americans will chomp through huge amounts of avocados mashed into guacamole during the Super Bowl on Sunday, and 80 percent of those fruits will come from Mexico’s ever-larger expanse of orchards, thanks to a free market created by the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994.
It is peak season for guacamole, a word that means avocado sauce in Mexico's native Nahuatl language. Some 100,000 tonnes of the green fruit, or 12 percent of annual U.S. demand, will be consumed on Sunday and in the days before and after the New England Patriots game against the Atlanta Falcons, exporters say.
With such market dominance and demand, growers like Adrian Iturbide doubt Trump's eagerness to impose duties on Mexican goods will dent exports. They feel they have little to fear from proposals by the Republican such as a 20 percent blanket tariff on U.S. imports from Mexico, that would affect sales of "green gold" to the northern neighbor.

Comment: Feb 02 2017 Geopolitics will move the stockmarkets. This news is suprising traders:

Quote: UN Ambassador Haley hits Russia hard on Ukraine

(CNN)The US Ambassador to the United Nations offered a strong condemnation of Russia in her first appearance at the UN Security Council on Thursday, calling on Moscow to de-escalate violence in eastern Ukraine and saying that US sanctions against Moscow would remain in place until it withdraws from Crimea.
"The United States continues to condemn and call for an immediate end to the Russian occupation of Crimea," said Nikki Haley, President Donald Trump's envoy to the world body. "Crimea is a part of Ukraine. Our Crimea-related sanctions will remain in place until Russia returns control over the peninsula to Ukraine."
Haley was speaking at an emergency UN meeting about a sudden upsurge in violence in eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian army. Her remarks were notable for the stark difference between her rhetoric and Trump's.
On the campaign trail, the President hinted he might recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea. In the weeks before and after his inauguration, Trump's refusal to condemn Russian hacking during the election and his attacks on the intelligence community for investigating those hacks raised questions about his ties to Moscow.
Comment: Jan 03 2017 Trump makes Mexican peso great again

Quote: Trump makes Mexican peso great again; investors see more gains ahead
Forex3 hours ago (Feb 03, 2017 04:28PM ET)

By Dion Rabouin

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Mexico’s peso has improbably been the world’s top-performing currency since Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration, and an increasing number of emerging market fund managers said it could rebound further from its nosedive following the U.S. election. Even before its inauguration comeback, a number of emerging market fund managers were betting that the peso had seen its worst days and was poised to outperform in 2017 along with other Mexican assets.
"We've gone from an outright short late last year to an overweight position relative to the index, just because there’s a lot of bad news priced in," said Jim Barrineau, Schroders' head of emerging markets debt and portfolio manager for its multi-sector bond fund. "The real exchange rate is very, very cheap relative to history, and at this point, the bond yields are competitive with the higher yielding countries in EM." The peso was up 8 percent since Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20 despite his proposal last week of a 20 percent border tax on Mexican imports and the collapse of a scheduled face-to-face meeting with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto. The peso also made a technical breakout Friday, rallying through a resistance point at the 20.56 level, around where it closed on Thursday. That level marks a 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of its sell-off since the Nov. 8 election.
"Perceiving the 20 percent import tax comment as a starting point for negotiations, the market took some solace because it could have been much higher, say 30 percent or 35 percent," said Gordian Kemen, global head of emerging market fixed income strategy for Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).
The peso has continued its tear even as Trump has reiterated concerns about the North American Free Trade Agreement, saying on Thursday he would like to speed up talks to either renegotiate or replace the deal. Kemen said investors were relieved Trump did not move to unilaterally withdraw from NAFTA or rule out talks entirely.


And though investors have in the past wagered at their peril that Trump's often extreme rhetoric would not be matched by his real-world actions, many are betting that the current price of Mexico's peso already reflects the worst of any potential U.S. action against the country. Deutsche Bank asset managers said earlier this week they believed the peso had hit a near-term bottom. Similarly, Michael Gomez, PIMCO's head of emerging markets portfolio management, said that while he expects the background to remain noisy, "Mexican assets and the peso specifically already incorporate much of the expected downside risk." UBS strategists recently said in a research note that even the border tax had been 70 percent priced into the peso's value. Source:
Comment: Frb 04 2017

Hill Republicans revolt over Trump's plans to build border wall
Comment: Feb 08 2017 What ever happens in the White House or the Oval Office. Only Minuts or Hours later you can read anything in the news. This never happened before. Here is the reason why:

Quote: The Fix
The leaks coming out of the Trump White House cast the president as a clueless child

All White Houses leak. Sometimes the leaks are big, sometimes small. But there are always people willing to talk to reporters about the “real” story or about why the chief executive made a mistake in regard to some decision he made.

That said, I've never seen so much leaking so quickly — and with such disdain for the president — as I have in the first six days of Donald Trump's presidency.

Two recent examples:

1. This from the New York Times today on Trump's impulsiveness:

Mr. Trump’s advisers say that his frenzied if admittedly impulsive approach appeals to voters because it shows that he is a man of action. Those complaining about his fixation with fictional voter fraud or crowd counts at his inauguration, in their view, are simply seeking ways to undercut his legitimacy.

Yet some of his own advisers also privately worry about his penchant for picking unnecessary fights and drifting off message. They talk about taking away his telephone or canceling his Twitter account, only to be dismissed by a president intent on keeping his own outlets to the world.

2. This from WaPo on Trump's inauguration crowd estimates:

Trump’s advisers suggested that he could push back in a simple tweet. Thomas J. Barrack Jr., a Trump confidant and the chairman of the Presidential Inaugural Committee, offered to deliver a statement addressing the crowd size.

But Trump was adamant, aides said. Over the objections of his aides and advisers — who urged him to focus on policy and the broader goals of his presidency — the new president issued a decree: He wanted a fiery public response, and he wanted it to come from his press secretary.

Time and again, the image of Trump pushed by his “aides” is one of a clueless child — someone who acts on impulse, disregarding the better advice of people who know better. We know he needs to be managed or else he will say and do stupid things, the message seems to be. We're working on it. And what we know about Trump from his presidential campaign is that some of his top staffers — most notably Kellyanne Conway — often communicated to the boss via the media. What that strategy suggests is that Trump is influenced at least as much — and, in truth, likely more — by reading the sniping of his aides on background (meaning without their names attached) in the news than he is by private conversations. That the best way to reach him, change his mind or otherwise bend his ear is through a public airing of grievances. Trump has shown that his tendency to obsessively consume media — especially cable television — is unchanged in the six days since he has become president. He appears to be making policy decisions via things he watches or reads. (Remember Trump's famous/infamous statement that he got his military information and advice “mostly from the shows.”) At odds with all of this, however, is the fact that Trump is both deeply proud and hugely image-conscious. Having to read and watch allegedly loyal “aides” casting him as a sort of feckless child constantly in need of guidance wouldn't seem to be the sort of thing that would sit well with him.

Read more:
Comment: Feb 08 2017 If you want to learn, how "alternative facts" might end watch this video if you open this link. Kellyanne Conway is debunking there own "alternative facts".

Jake Tapper spars with Kellyanne Conway over WH falsehoods

Washington (CNN)Top White House adviser Kellyanne Conway has apologized for citing a fake "massacre" in support of Donald Trump's travel ban, in an interview on CNN in which she acknowledged that not all of the mainstream media can fairly be characterized as "fake news".
Conway said "regretted tremendously" shaming the press for not covering the "Bowling Green massacre", an event that did not happen, when she was defending Trump's immigration crackdown.
Comment: Feb 08 2017: Game Changer: Donald Trump is - probably - going "to fire" Sean Spicer. Expect that he is going to fire Kellyanne Conway next and finally Steve Bannon. You did not believe in any "Trump Holliday"? Be prepared - it´s comming soon and once more the majority of traders - even retail of pro´s - get caught on the wrong foot (the same what we say in our german language as well)

Quote: White House ramping up search for communications director after Spicer's rocky start

By Jim Acosta, CNN Senior White House Correspondent

Updated 0502 GMT (1302 HKT) February 8, 2017
sean spicer dana bash _00030115

Washington (CNN)The White House is ramping up its search for a new communications director in an effort to lighten the load of embattled White House press secretary Sean Spicer, multiple sources told CNN.
A source familiar with internal communications said President Donald Trump is disappointed in Spicer's performance during the first two weeks of the administration.

Spicer has served as both White House press secretary and communications director for the new administration. Those roles are typically filled by two staffers.
Former Trump transition spokesman Jason Miller was originally tapped to serve as communications director for the White House, but Miller stepped aside before Inauguration Day to spend more time with his family.
A longtime Republican operative, Spicer is a close ally of White House chief of staff Reince Priebus. According to the source close to the hiring process, Trump is upset with Priebus over the selection of Spicer for arguably the administration's most visible position, next to the President.

Comment: FEB 09 2017: Mexican CB, unexpectedly rate hike
Comment: Feb 09 2017 Quote: Why Trump might play nice with Japan’s Abe

Published: Feb 9, 2017 5:04 p.m. ET

The White House is describing President Donald Trump’s plan to host Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at his golf resort in Florida as a “gift,” a day ahead of the meeting in Washington between the two leaders. “That is a gift that the president is extending to the prime minister,” White House press secretary Sean Spicer told reporters Thursday about the planned weekend visit to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. Abe and Trump are due to have talks at the White House Friday and the two are scheduled to travel together to the Palm Beach resort afterward. Questions have arisen about the ethics of the trip. Experts cited by The Wall Street Journal said the most appropriate option would be for Trump to host Abe at Mar-a-Lago as his guest, if Japanese government ethics rules permit. Source:
Comment: FEB 10 2017 And here he is .....

.... welcome Mr. Nice Guy Donald Trump and welcome also the very first "nice" tweet from 45th POTUS:
Comment: FEB 11 2017 Mr. Nice Guy, Donald Trump:
Comment: Feb 11 2017: Trump in change from campaign rhetoric
Politics | Sat Feb 11, 2017 | 11:22am EST
Trump says U.S. committed to Japan security, in change from campaign rhetoric
Comment: FEB 13 2017 Watch todays meeting Trump with Canadas Prime Minister Trudeau.
Comment: FEB 13 2017: Follow closely todays Trump meeting with Canadas Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Comment: FEB 13 2017 Trump discovers the limits of his power
Comment: Comment: FEB 13 2017 Wall St. set to extend record run as 'Trump trade' rekindles
Stock Markets38 minutes ago (Feb 13, 2017 08:44AM ET)
Comment: Comment: Comment: FEB 15 2017: Record winning streak not seen in a quarter century.
Comment: FEB 15 2016 U.S. secretaries Tillerson, Kelly to visit Mexico next week

Politics47 minutes ago (Feb 15, 2017 02:00PM ET)

Quote: MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Homeland Security head John Kelly will visit Mexico next Thursday, Mexico's foreign ministry said on Wednesday. The officials will meet with various members of the Mexican government to continue the dialogue agreed upon when U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto spoke by phone in January, the ministry said in a statement. Source: MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Homeland Security head John Kelly will visit Mexico next Thursday, Mexico's foreign ministry said on Wednesday. The officials will meet with various members of the Mexican government to continue the dialogue agreed upon when U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto spoke by phone in January, the ministry said in a statement. Source:
Comment: FEB 17 2017: Border Adjustment TAX. U-Turn likely
Merkel ally: If Trump imposes punitive tariffs, we'll likely do the same

For any border adjustment TAX Trump needs approval of congress and senate. At least two GOP Senators will vote against this: John McCain und Lindsey Graham. Only one Senator more voting against Trumps Border Tax means Donald Trump is becoming a lame duck as early as no US President bevore ever.

Quote: Merkel ally: If Trump imposes punitive tariffs, we'll likely do the same
Economy2 hours ago (Feb 17, 2017 05:40AM ET)
BERLIN (Reuters) - If U.S. President Donald Trump imposes punitive tariffs on goods from other countries, Europe will probably do the same, a senior ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a magazine interview.

Trump has pulled out of a multilateral trade agreement with Asia-Pacific nations, vowed to renegotiate the U.S. free-trade deal with Canada and Mexico and wants to protect U.S. industries from foreign competition by levying new tariffs on goods. In January, he warned the United States would impose a border tax of 35 percent on imported cars. Volker Kauder, the leader of Merkel's conservatives in parliament, told Focus magazine in an interview due to be published on Saturday that he did not want an upward race in terms of tariffs. But he added: "If Trump makes the first move, we'll probably have to make the next one. Europe must reserve the right to respond with the same methods." Kauder said he was very concerned about Trump's global economic policy: "We need to talk to Trump and his people about how isolationist policies neither help America nor us."
Comment: FEB 17 2017: Border adjustment tax seemed to wane after President Donald Trump this week met with retailers who oppose the plan.

Quote: Border adjustment tax is on 'life support,' and tax reform may come later ... and with less punch
The tax plan that promises the biggest cuts in corporate taxes without straining the federal budget looks increasingly unlikely to become law.
"I wouldn't call it dead, but I would say it's on life support," said Greg Valliere, chief global strategist with Horizon Investment. Valliere said the chances for the so-called border adjustment tax seemed to wane after President Donald Trump this week met with retailers who oppose the plan.
Comment: FEB 18 2017: Trump approval rating sets a new low at 38^% (Gallup)

Expect Donald Trump is losing more and more supporters. Same time the low approval rates explaining why Trumps tone since few days getting more and more aggressive. Expect another u-turn if Trump recognize that he will fail if he do not change this way of communication. Expect that one of his aids (Conway/Spicer/Bannon) gets "fired" next. This will cause another spike to the upside for stockmarkets.
Comment: Comment: FEB 18 2017: Trumps approval rates on record lows. What does this means (historically)?

Read more:
Quote: Disapproval
Trump’s Approval Ratings Are Down. How Much Does It Mean?
Comment: FEB 20 2017 Expect another Trump U-Turn by his team in Mexico later this week.

Published On: Sat, Feb 18th, 2017
Headlines / International / National / News | By Yucatan Times
What to expect from US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Homeland Security chief John Kelly visit to Mexico on Feb. 23?
Mexico City (AFP) – US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Homeland Security chief John Kelly will visit Mexico this coming Thursday February 23, to reestablish “constructive” ties after a diplomatic crisis, Mexico’s government said Wednesday. Source:
Comment: FEB 21 2017 Border tax hits political reality, and only Trump can save it

John Harwood | @johnjharwood
6 Mins Ago
Quote: So, Sen. David Perdue of Georgia, a former retail executive, has pronounced border adjustment an economic threat. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, home base of Wal-Mart, has vowed to fight it. John Cornyn of Texas, who worries about the effect on oil prices and serves as the Senate's second-ranking Republican, last week pronounced border adjustment "on life support." Those three Republicans alone — if they hold firm — could be enough to sink the idea in a Senate where Republicans control just 52 seats. Source:
Comment: FEB 21 2017: Watch how strong the Mexican Peos is today.
Comment: FEB 25 2017: The Week Ahead: 1 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Quote: - In the week ahead, global financial markets will focus on U.S. President Donald Trump's address to Congress on Tuesday for further details on his promises of tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. - In the week ahead, global financial markets will focus on U.S. President Donald Trump's address to Congress on Tuesday for further details on his promises of tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. Quote:
Comment: FEB 26 2017: As discussed here now for weeks it´s on the news today:

Quote: Trump to address nation sandbagged by record low approval rating: NBC/WSJ poll
President Donald Trump will address the nation on Tuesday night saddled with the lowest approval ratings of any new chief executive in modern American history, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll shows. Source:
Comment: MAR 1 2017: Trump smoothed his rough edges, soothed congressional Republicans and reached out to populations he'd previously alienated.

Qoute: Gone from his speech to a joint session of Congress were the lengthy attacks on media and Democratic opponents. Missing was the gloom-and-doom warnings of "American carnage" from his inaugural address. And while he didn't deliver a ton of policy specifics. "The time for trivial fights is behind us," Trump said.
The question, of course, is whether Trump will take his own advice when he's facing some criticism and Twitter is calling. Source:
Comment: MAR 1 2017: Peso gains more than 1,4% after Trumps speech.
Comment: MAR 02 2017: "Bad Cop- good Cop" - Wilbur Ross talks the Peso higher. The Peso gains 2,3% today.

A better US-Mexico trade deal would save the battered peso: Commerce Secretary Ross
Comment: Comment: MAR 03 2017: Thanks, Donald! Nice unmoved for the peso.
Comment: ... nice upmove ...
The Peso gained on Friday 2,47% in one day only.
Comment: MAR 6 2017: Expect more gains for the Peso. After weekends Twitter desaster Trump needs to change a lot.
Comment: MAR 6 2017: And he did: Trump changed a lot: New Travel Ban

- no tweets
- no press
- Rex Tillerson adressed the press

President Trump privately signs new travel ban targeting those seeking new visas
Comment: MAR 08 2017: Trump´s next u-turn

U.S. Commerce chief sees no major NAFTA talks until later this year
Comment: MAR 15 2017: Trump travel ban: revised order blocked nationwide by Hawaii federal judge – live
Comment: MAR 18 2017: Treasury's Mnuchin says Trump does not want trade wars
PoliticsMar 16, 2017 06:03PM ET
Comment: MAR 22 2017: Donald Trump is not almighty and USDMXN understand this lesson at once.

Vote looming, Trump struggles to win Obamacare repeal

Quote: WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday was set to make a final push on Thursday to secure the votes to begin dismantling Obamacare in the House of Representatives, with signs that enough Republicans might defect to jeopardize one of his top legislative priorities. Trump has mounted an intensive campaign to garner support for the initiative and the effort is seen by financial markets as a crucial test of his ability to move his legislative agenda, including planned tax cuts, through Congress.

Republican leaders hoped to vote on Thursday but there were signs the deadline could be pushed back. Trump scheduled an 11:30 a.m. ET/1530 GMT meeting with members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus at the White House.
"We're still open for negotiations," Representative Ted Yoho, a member of the conservative group, told CNN. "There is still time."Democratic Representative Steny Hoyer said the majority Republicans clearly did not have enough votes to pass the bill, which has been championed by House Speaker Paul Ryan. Source:
Comment: MAR 24 2017: Trump's approval rating craters in poll — and his base is the culprit

Quote: President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37% — a new low, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday. The poll found the president to be losing crucial support among Republicans, men, and white voters. The survey of 1,056 voters from across the US found that Trump's approval among Republican voters dropped to 81%, from 91% of those surveyed in a similar Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago. His disapproval rating among that group jumped to 14% from 5%.
The poll showed those in Trump's most supportive demographics — male and white voters — to be increasingly unhappy with his performance. Forty-three percent of men approved of Trump — down from 49% in the most recent poll, while 44% of white voters approved, also down from 49%. "Most alarming for President Donald Trump, the demographic underpinnings of his support, Republicans, white voters, especially men and those without a college degree, are starting to have doubts," the assistant director of the poll, Tim Malloy, said in a statement. Source:
Comment: MAR 24: The Mexican Peso strenghten on Trumps weakness.

Quote: For Trump, it was the lost art of the deal
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In the end, the Closer couldn’t close the deal.

For President Donald Trump, the collapse on Friday of his first legislative priority, a healthcare reform bill, was an embarrassing loss of face after he and his administration insisted up until the time of the vote by the U.S. House of Representatives that there was enough Republican support.
It brings into question the neophyte president’s ability to move big-ticket legislation through Congress. And for a celebrity businessman who brands himself a deal-maker and fixer, it casts doubt over his ability to deliver on his bold "drain-the-swamp" promises to shake up Washington.
The White House wants to advance, among other things, tax reform and a massive infrastructure package this year, but now it must address whether a change of approach is needed and whether congressional allies such as House Speaker Paul Ryan can be counted on to deliver.
"This is the most consequential day of Trump's presidency and it's not just a failure, it's a stunning failure,” Charlie Sykes, an influential Wisconsin Republican political commentator and frequent Trump critic, said on Twitter.
Comment: MAR 29 2017: USDMXN dropped 1,68% to the lowest levels since the Trump Inauguration.
Comment: MAR 30 2017: Trump declares war on Republican conservatives: 'We must fight them'
Comment: APR 02 2017 An influential GOP senator throws cold water on the polarizing House border tax provision
Comment: APR 05 2017 - Quote: In reversal, Bannon removed from National Security Council
(CNN)Steve Bannon, President Donald Trump's chief strategist, has been removed from his permanent seat at the National Security Council, multiple sources tell CNN, moving the council into a more traditional format.
The decision, which one source with knowledge said was made by Trump himself, comes after the President in January authorized the reorganization of the National Security Council to include Bannon as a permanent member of the panel. Source:
Comment: Comment: APR 08 2017 - USDMXN is ready for a new drop back to pre election levels. The Trump Team could be expect to set a more moderate tone until the end of Trumps first 100 days in office.
Trump Fires Warning Shot in Battle Between Bannon and Kushner
Comment: APR 12 2017- Fitch changes its mind: Trump isn't a threat to the world economy after all

- In February, Fitch warned that Trump posed a danger to global economic stability.

- In April, the ratings agency says the president's pro-growth agenda would push GDP more than expected.

Concerns linger over protectionism and debt, but the report was a major change from the previous warnings.
Comment: APR 17 2017 - Wall Street banker Cohn moving Trump toward moderate policies
WASHINGTON/BOSTON (Reuters) - In a White House marked by infighting, top economic aide Gary Cohn, a Democrat and former Goldman Sachs banker, is muscling aside some of President Donald Trump's hard-right advisers to push more moderate, business-friendly economic policies. Source:
Comment: APR 17 2017 - Border Adjustment TAX maybe never to come:
Quote: Supporters of the border-adjustment provision point out that it would raise $1 trillion in revenue that could be used to help pay for lowering tax rates. Mnuchin told the Financial Times that there are other ways that the White House could raise $1 trillion but that the border-adjustment proposal is not "off the table." Source:
Trade active: APR 19 2017: Sold 1/8 today for profit taking.
Comment: APR 23 2017: For German Readers (english as soon as available)
Angela Merkel musste Trump Berichten zufolge 11-mal die Prinzipien der EU erklären
Comment: APR 24 2017: Angela Merkel reportedly had to explain the 'fundamentals' of EU trade to Trump 11 times
Comment: Trump agrees 'not to terminate NAFTA at this time'
Comment: For German readers - all Trump tweets until today. The markets following the change in the tone with new all time highs.
Comment: Top Mexican trade official to hold sugar talks next week in U.S.
Comment: Even missing to up date this issue: The trend is still valid. USDMXN now below the pre U.S. election levels:

Comment: G20 Meeting in Hamburg, Germany:

No tradewar USA-China for the meantime

Trump keeps it friendly with Xi at G-20 on North Korea threat
Comment: President Trump's six-month approval rating is lowest ever recorded — but he says it's 'not bad'
Comment: Donald Trumps approval rates on new record lows:
Comment: The last issue likely to keep Trump in Office is economics. U.S. voters link this to Trump. Facts are: Global strong economic fundamentals keep the U.S. economy growing. Trump advisers likely understand that any slowdown in local economics could end Trumps Presidentcy quickly on Russia probes.
Comment: USDMXN: All trades closed on profit taking.

Comment: USDMXN short closed

so were you expect this wave will end
@AHMEDIH, sorry for late reply: i guess USDMXN to go lower for another 20%.
awesome, made a lot of money trading your ideas. this trade bought me a car! thank you so much, you had a big impact on my life.
@NonOlet, remind all those who have nothing than their live wich otherones want to take them.

Your 20000 (20711) target is according to ABC and Fibo Extension ?
@MAPSY, Sorry i post it in wrong place. I am asking for DAX
Good chart thanks
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