MrRenev

USDMXN bottom of range

Long
FX:USDMXN   U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso
Investors are back from holiday, labor day is over, there is today some jewish holiday I do not know the impact but anyway the stock market will be open today, maybe a bit slower than it should because of that holiday. We'll see what happens, but unless something insane goes on I see no reason for this currency pair to suddenly go crazy. It has been in a boring range for a few months and by now it has repeated the same price action a bunch of times.

I don't do this often, I put a couple of indicators on the chart, mostly because of the pretty colors. They do not say anything special, simply there is:
- The MACD (and EMAS) crossing. Over and over. The MACD cross is quicker to visualize than the price bottoming before going up, which never looks the same
- The "Max Gain" (and ROC to an extent) showing in a quick single look the expected upside, without having to measure 1 by 1 every previous upswing


We can look for 1 to 1.5%, which is the 2 day ATR. This is very small, and because of spreads risk will be at least 10% bigger and reward smaller by a few percent. Risk to reward gets crushed. It should be at least of 3 (2.7 left after spreads). And be careful not entering late in the evening as spreads widen massively.

I don't like this very much because of the small nature of it, so it should be easy to let it come to us. Really wouldn't care missing out. It could go straight up 2, 3% or more which would make it more interesting.

Not only do spreads decimate the payout assuming this is actually good, but you won't make any kind of decent money, the only way would be to use serious gear and that's really a bad idea.

I see no reason for the odds not to be 50/50, or at least 1/3, and since it is possible to get a reward greater than twice the risk, plus it's september and I think it can go well past expectations.

Really doesn't get me excited, it's just so small and expensive and mediocre. You guys like this kind of stuff?
Comment: Damn missed my entry by not much.
Weird that price hesitated for so long.
Waiting for S&P to move I guess.

Well. Here the plan logically would be to hold as long as price goes up vertically (and only if), no reason to stay in otherwise, in my opinion, it's not trending.
It might pullback then continue up but I do not think the odds of that happening are high, I see no reason why, but I'm not certain about this I could be wrong (wrong about the odds not about it going up or not).