I expect a test of the first risunf pitchfork line as the pivot point at 13 was surpassed.
Comments
motleifaul
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Rien ne vas plus. Position closed. All the profit taken now. Looks like if the lower pitchfork line may be the end of the downmove at moment.
motleifaul
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Part of the profit is taken now. Let's see further...
ForceFollower
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If you're looking to go short, why don't you draw a down fork? It might come in handy, both for your stop and your target... :)
motleifaul
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I am short already, a bit early. If I draw a downsloping fork not much will change as the forks work in both direktions. The target zone remains the same.
I think that we are still in an uptrend and that's why I prefer the upforks. I am trading against the trend what makes it risky. Perhaps it is not wise at all to trade against the trend. On the other hand I've done good deals betting on retracements. But I have no statistics of whether the countertrend deals really brought a substantial add to the profit at the end as a whole. Perhaps one should do this. What is your experience?
ForceFollower
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In my opinion, you're not fighting the up trend in this case. You're doing a good job of following a down trend that is developing on a M240 time frame. If I was trading this pair, I'd also be short, and I follow trends (market force) exclusively (hence my name). In case you were afraid, you were fighting the up trend, make sure the price has closed below SMA(10,HLC3) on a daily chart or SMA(60,HLC3) on a H4 chart.
As for the statistics, mine show that if you try to fight the trend, you'll be better off, if you stick to the above mentioned rule. :-)
motleifaul
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Thank you for sharing your experience. Perhaps it is a good approach to deal the shorter time frame when against the trend. But it takes much more time. I will have to find a way how to deal with this problem. Up to now I had no statistics about the results of countertrend trades. I had statistics for EUR/USD, XAU/USD and XAG/USD only where I'm always with the trend as like as you do. There I take bigger positions.
But as due to the very good dealing results this year I tend to increase the position sizes for the other pairs too and I think I have to do a bit more statistical research here as well then.
ForceFollower
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Sure. Your own research is irreplaceable. Nothing will convince you more than this. For that purpose you can use various tools, Excel spreadsheets, etc. including the programme Forex Tester 2 (v.2.9.6). It enables you to trade at your own speed and gain enormous experience much faster than doing only real-time trading. (If you're interested and you don't have this software, I may drop you a link on your e-mail, where you can purchase it.)