4xForecaster
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$USD vs. $NOK - Wolfe Wave Eyes 1-4 Line #forex #fibonacci

FX:USDNOK   U.S. Dollar/Norwegian Krone
Friends,


Here is a potential opportunity to witness a geometric             cycle completion of a Wolfe Wave pattern, concluding at its 1-4 Line validation.


WOLFE WAVE:

Potential short-opp presents itself through the geometric             completion of a Wolfe Wave at market close in this 4-hour chart. On last day of market, price reached the 1-3 alignment. This was paced into a 5-point morphology typical of the Wolfe Wave , which projects its "Take Profit" target via a probable 1-4 Line validation.


FIBONACCI NOTE:

If price were to complete this geometric             cycle, potential levels of support should be sought along the 1-4 Line of the pattern, in structural convergence with price levels of 7.64660 and 7.56234, corresponding to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. Historically, these levels align with significant pivots , as highlighted in the chart.


snapshot


ELLIOTT WAVE NOTE:

Preceding this Wolfe Wave pattern completion, a reciprocal symmetry (ab = cd) may call for a potential rallying to higher highs - A weekly chart (not shown) would suggest that this segment corresponds to an Elliott Wave 5th wave correction, and that a final 5th impulse would push price to higher levels, above current Wolfe Wave , either into a conclusive 5th wave truncation, or a full extension above Point-a of the background symmetry.


OVERALL:

This represents a high-probability set-up at a higher, stable timeframe. The probability of recovery from the recent price swing (from point-2 to point-5 of the geometry) is high, but likely controlled at a Fibonacci pace, at significant levels defined in the chart.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - This is a cut/paste of the "Chart Update" and "Tech-Note" comments that I had posted in the "Post Comment" section.

In order to keep the chronology clean, following is a mere cut/paste of the comments and charts made prior to this week:


* * * In order to avoid any confusion from a dual analysis which sought bullish target at the long-term timeframe (weekly) and mid-term bearish targets (4-hour chart), I have left the 4-hour chart or any smaller timeframe out on purpose - Following is only a cut/paste chronology that pertains to the original analysis on the weekly chart * * *


=======================
06 JUN 2014 - ADDENDUM:

For sake of illustration, here is what the WEEKLY chart would look for, enumerating a incomplete Elliott Wave impulse with its internal 5 waves (5th wave remains speculative, although Predictive/Forecasting Model defined a top target as shown in this chart, corresponding to a minor Fibonacci level):

snapshot


Note that significant resistance is expected at the Bearish Entrenchment zone, if price rose challenged that level. For the Wolve Wave/Geo trader, remember that in the H4 chart, a ab = cd pattern was left to sight. This is simply a visual reminder that it may represent the 1-2 Leg of a 5-point anatomy pertaining to the Geo (which has a ab = cd rule requirement in its 1-2 Leg, in contrast to the Wolve Wave).

Best,
----------
David Alcindor


07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDNOK drills through Bearish Entrenchment; Mulls Elliott Wave 5th wave completion:

snapshot


$USD $NOK $norges #forex
---------
David Alcindor


03 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDNOK stomps against fierce bearish entrapment; Faces highest prob. of reversal; Geo lurks in background:

snapshot


$NOK
-----------
David Alcindor
=======================
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As price roll-steamed right through the anticipated "Bearish Entrenchment" zone, it ended up validating a long-term target defined on June 06th, 2015 as "TG-Hi - 8.66629 - 06 JUN2015":
snapshot


At this point, a nascent Geo remains intact, as price reached a higher probability of reversal upon validating this aforementioned "Qual-Target" - Note that such reversal would likely be unimpeded, perhaps expressed as a bearish motive of 5-wave internals ... Worth the wait - The structure most likely to offer support is defined in the following chart:
snapshot


In terms of Fibonacci value, this would represent a 61.8% contraction:
snapshot


David Alcindor
06 JUN 2014 - ADDENDUM:

For sake of illustration, here is what the WEEKLY chart would look for, enumerating a incomplete Elliott Wave impulse with its internal 5 waves (5th wave remains speculative, although Predictive/Forecasting Model defined a top target as shown in this chart, corresponding to a minor Fibonacci level):


snapshot



Note that significant resistance is expected at the Bearish Entrenchment zone, if price rose challenged that level. For the Wolve Wave/Geo trader, remember that in the H4 chart, a ab = cd pattern was left to sight. This is simply a visual reminder that it may represent the 1-2 Leg of a 5-point anatomy pertaining to the Geo (which has a ab = cd rule requirement in its 1-2 Leg, in contrast to the Wolve Wave).

Best,


David Alcindor
Reply
08 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDNOK rolled per forecast; Vanishing probability targets remain intact as shown:

snapshot


$USD $NOK #norges #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
08 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDNOK continues to roll as forecast; Just broke WW's 2-4 Line; Bearish target intact, in force:

snapshot


$USD $NOK #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
10 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
-----------
$USDNOK hit its proximal #fibonacci 50% target as forecast; Next target remains probability:

/x/oYuI1e3T/#

$NOK
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
10 JUN 2015 - TECH-NOTE:

For those interested in pattern trading, you may have noticed a high-probability pattern (in fact, TWO of them) that have completed in this recent price action.

Can you name each of them?

Best,


David Alcindor
Reply
11 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDNOK - Watch for possible, albeit limited, retracement to 0.618 from geometry's underbelly:

snapshot


$USD $NOK $norges
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
18 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDNOK fell as forecast; Mulls second #fibonacci-based target at 0.618:

snapshot


$USD $NOK #norges #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
6 July 2015

$USDNOK. Hi David. Is there any way of determining which has the higher probability, a further rise to 5' or a decline to the 1 - 4 Line as per WW? Thank you. Iefan

snapshot
+2 Reply
06 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$USDNOK eyes high-prob. decline from current level to 7.59436 as Wolfe Wave completes:

snapshot


$USD $NOK $norges #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
@iefan - If you use the internal construction of the Geo, the 1-2 Leg is a reciprocal 1b = cd symmetry (build from d to c, then b to a, as it requires a backward projection, where its point-a points to the level that should be closest to the correct 1-3 Line. You will notice that there are three spikes where Point-1 of the BLUE geometry is, and that there is only one possible spike that corresponds to that level. Once built this way, you will get a near perfect alignment of that geometry's Point-5).

David
+1 Reply
07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDNOK drills through Bearish Entrenchment; Mulls Elliott Wave 5th wave completion:

snapshot


$USD $NOK $norges #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
07 JUL 2015 - Tech-Note:

While the 4-hour chart is still playing out, the downside is now more limited as price reaches for the 5' position. I have left the internal ab = cd symmetry that appears to be playing out at this time, as price continues to rise:


snapshot



In any case, Point-4 is becoming the most probable point of repose - if price were to decline from the 5-prime level - before the weekly chart was to resume.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
GalShafat PRO 4xForecaster
http://screencast.com/t/tummA5a9uGM1

checking trendline
+1 Reply
Hello @Galshafat, - Thank you for posting ideas here. Please, use small icon in this writing space to the right when posting TradingView chart - I won't click on any link. Too many problems in the past.

Thank you.

David


+1 Reply
BTCMarket 4xForecaster
Hello David, I just want to clarify your comments. You see this pair headed to Point-4 on your 4hr chart before heading to Point-5 on your weekly chart?

Many Thanks
+1 Reply
Hello @Wolfe,

Yes, I would expect price to submit to the 4-hour geometry prior to committing to higher grounds, if Elliott Wave has its way (an alternate "truncation" would dampen price's ability to rise above termination of 3rd wave in the weekly chart - in case of truncation).

David
+1 Reply
10 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDNOK rolls from Point-5 as forecast; Targets 7.59436 as highest probability attainment per Geo's Off-Set Rule:

snapshot

----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Realisto_FX PRO 4xForecaster
Here´s my view . I´m a applying a safety rule in Wolfe Waves by waiting for a reversal and close below 1-3 trendline . It protects me from an unexpected extension of point 5 .
snapshot
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Realisto_FX
Hello, @jpocalles:

"I´m a applying a safety rule in Wolfe Waves by waiting for a reversal and close below 1-3 trendline . It protects me from an unexpected extension of point 5 ."

Exactly. The rule is best applied if waiting for the open of NEXT candle/bar following price commitment to the other side of the 1-3 Line ("BACA" rule, which simply implies two core conditions:

1 - Breaking Across

and

2 - Closing Across


Very nice safety measure.


David
+1 Reply
03 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDNOK stomps against fierce bearish entrapment; Faces highest prob. of reversal; Geo lurks in background:

snapshot


$NOK
-----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Do you have an updated geo map of this pair?
Reply
Looks like we are arriving at your proposed truncation here David.
This week might be huge, with the developments in oil and stocks.
Reply
29 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Look for possible rest at level of Point-4 per Geo's Off-Set Rule, as price takes a reprieve from an ascent to 5-prime:


snapshot



David
+2 Reply
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