Here is a potential opportunity to witness a geometric cycle completion of a Wolfe Wave pattern, concluding at its 1-4 Line validation.
WOLFE WAVE:
Potential short-opp presents itself through the geometric completion of a Wolfe Wave at market close in this 4-hour chart. On last day of market, price reached the 1-3 alignment. This was paced into a 5-point morphology typical of the Wolfe Wave, which projects its "Take Profit" target via a probable 1-4 Line validation.
FIBONACCI NOTE:
If price were to complete this geometric cycle, potential levels of support should be sought along the 1-4 Line of the pattern, in structural convergence with price levels of 7.64660 and 7.56234, corresponding to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. Historically, these levels align with significant pivots, as highlighted in the chart.
ELLIOTT WAVE NOTE:
Preceding this Wolfe Wave pattern completion, a reciprocal symmetry (ab = cd) may call for a potential rallying to higher highs - A weekly chart (not shown) would suggest that this segment corresponds to an Elliott Wave 5th wave correction, and that a final 5th impulse would push price to higher levels, above current Wolfe Wave, either into a conclusive 5th wave truncation, or a full extension above Point-a of the background symmetry.
OVERALL:
This represents a high-probability set-up at a higher, stable timeframe. The probability of recovery from the recent price swing (from point-2 to point-5 of the geometry) is high, but likely controlled at a Fibonacci pace, at significant levels defined in the chart.
Best,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA
07 NOV 2015 - This is a cut/paste of the "Chart Update" and "Tech-Note" comments that I had posted in the "Post Comment" section.
In order to keep the chronology clean, following is a mere cut/paste of the comments and charts made prior to this week:
* * * In order to avoid any confusion from a dual analysis which sought bullish target at the long-term timeframe (weekly) and mid-term bearish targets (4-hour chart), I have left the 4-hour chart or any smaller timeframe out on purpose - Following is only a cut/paste chronology that pertains to the original analysis on the weekly chart * * *
======================= 06 JUN 2014 - ADDENDUM:
For sake of illustration, here is what the WEEKLY chart would look for, enumerating a incomplete Elliott Wave impulse with its internal 5 waves (5th wave remains speculative, although Predictive/Forecasting Model defined a top target as shown in this chart, corresponding to a minor Fibonacci level):
Note that significant resistance is expected at the Bearish Entrenchment zone, if price rose challenged that level. For the Wolve Wave/Geo trader, remember that in the H4 chart, a ab = cd pattern was left to sight. This is simply a visual reminder that it may represent the 1-2 Leg of a 5-point anatomy pertaining to the Geo (which has a ab = cd rule requirement in its 1-2 Leg, in contrast to the Wolve Wave).
Best, ---------- David Alcindor
07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn: ---------- USDNOK drills through Bearish Entrenchment; Mulls Elliott Wave 5th wave completion:
From Twitter/LinkedIn: ---------- USDNOK stomps against fierce bearish entrapment; Faces highest prob. of reversal; Geo lurks in background:
NOK ----------- David Alcindor =======================
Comment
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07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
As price roll-steamed right through the anticipated "Bearish Entrenchment" zone, it ended up validating a long-term target defined on June 06th, 2015 as "TG-Hi - 8.66629 - 06 JUN2015":
At this point, a nascent Geo remains intact, as price reached a higher probability of reversal upon validating this aforementioned "Qual-Target" - Note that such reversal would likely be unimpeded, perhaps expressed as a bearish motive of 5-wave internals ... Worth the wait - The structure most likely to offer support is defined in the following chart:
In terms of Fibonacci value, this would represent a 61.8% contraction:
@iefan - If you use the internal construction of the Geo, the 1-2 Leg is a reciprocal 1b = cd symmetry (build from d to c, then b to a, as it requires a backward projection, where its point-a points to the level that should be closest to the correct 1-3 Line. You will notice that there are three spikes where Point-1 of the BLUE geometry is, and that there is only one possible spike that corresponds to that level. Once built this way, you will get a near perfect alignment of that geometry's Point-5).
David
iefan
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6 July 2015
USDNOK. Hi David. Is there any way of determining which has the higher probability, a further rise to 5' or a decline to the 1 - 4 Line as per WW? Thank you. Iefan
4xForecaster
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08 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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USDNOK rolled per forecast; Vanishing probability targets remain intact as shown:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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USDNOK rolls from Point-5 as forecast; Targets 7.59436 as highest probability attainment per Geo's Off-Set Rule:
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David Alcindor
Realisto_FX
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Here´s my view . I´m a applying a safety rule in Wolfe Waves by waiting for a reversal and close below 1-3 trendline . It protects me from an unexpected extension of point 5 .
4xForecaster
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Hello, @jpocalles:
"I´m a applying a safety rule in Wolfe Waves by waiting for a reversal and close below 1-3 trendline . It protects me from an unexpected extension of point 5 ."
Exactly. The rule is best applied if waiting for the open of NEXT candle/bar following price commitment to the other side of the 1-3 Line ("BACA" rule, which simply implies two core conditions:
Look for possible rest at level of Point-4 per Geo's Off-Set Rule, as price takes a reprieve from an ascent to 5-prime:
David