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traderWgun
Oct 19, 2014 8:36 PM

Significant top? Short

U.S. Dollar/Norwegian KroneFXCM

Description

Last weeks candle looks very bearish as the pair got rejected at 6.67 and closed at 6.54,
making a shooting star candlestick formation in the process.

This could be a significant top as we have completed three legs from 2011 low
and seven legs from 2013 low.

We also find that price is in an interesting area from a Fibonacci stand point.

This correction could go on and grind higher, but I'm currently short against
last weeks high.

A break above 6.85 (wave c of y = 1.618 wave a of y) would give me reason
for reconsideration.

My demo account is now inactive. Stay tuned for my real account.

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Good luck!
Comments
LudmilaHanania
I am short too from 6.56, good luck!. What is your target on the downside? I am looking for 6.39-6.40 as a 1st target.
traderWgun
It depends on which kind of movement we get from here. But from an technical analysis stand point, 6.35-26, where we find 61.8-50% fib and former resistance.


Good luck to you too! :)
ACROFX
Hi, thank you for sharing your ideas regarding USDNOK.

We have believed in stronger Norwegian Krone for quite some time and so far we have been dead wrong. But with last weeks candle (weekly timeframe), we also noticed a negative divergence between RSI and price on daily chart.

From a fundamental point of view, Norwegian krone is around 3-4% weaker than Norges Banks forecast for I44 (import weighted Krone index). Furthermore, the market is pricing 25% possiblity for a rate-cut on upcoming interest meeting this thursday (24th of October). Most likely they interest rate will be on hold. Time will show!
traderWgun
Thank for sharing your view. It's going to be interesting to follow the NOK and other correlated markets, like USOIL which is also getting interesting


It's at the bottom of the range and it looks like it's doing a Elliott wave triangle

We are also seeing hidden bullish divergence on the weekly

LudmilaHanania
Hi, I think the interest rate will hold too, I am invested heavily in Norway, I have various accounts with Dnb Nor , purchased 2 apartments in Sorenga last week, it is a country with a good economic future , I see you are Norwegian ,may I PM you with a few questions? thanks
LudmilaHanania
This was for ACROFX.
manijeh.kazemi.33
thanks
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