Short Term Outlook

FX:USDOLLAR   Dollar Index
10 0 1
Index has reached Thursdays swing low at 12040 as well as
standing close to the lower Kumo Cloud support at 12036.
We see the dollar weakening ahead of FOMC but has not yet
shifted trend but holding neutral inside the cloud.
Even a test of the lower wedge floor will not change the
general bullish outlook, from a technical perspective.
Important levels are the wedge floor and Yearly R1 at 11965.
It is important to look at daily closes for guidance of bias.
A close below the wedge floor should be followed by a close
below 11950 and Monthly S2 at 11936 for more conviction.
Below 11855 and the higher low sequence is broken.
This latter level will also roughly coincide with the upper
Weekly Kumo Cloud. On Weekly timeframe current price
action just look like a normal retracement within a bullish
trend. Only a weekly close inside the cloud will shift focus
on that timeframe. The Weekly Kijun Sen stands at 11987.
On monthly timeframe it is more visiually clear how price has
been in a congestion during March-Novemer 2015.
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