CVecchioFX3e
Long

USDOLLAR Index Consolidates in Bull Flag Post-FOMC

FX:USDOLLAR   Dollar Index
Yesterday's FOMC shook out as expected: the Fed took on a modestly hawkish tone, with several disclaimers as to why they wouldn't pre-commit to interest rate hikes. Price action around the meeting was rather fickle, with markets first taking the stance that the Fed's view that the economy was "nearly balanced" would deter them from raising rates in September, then to the position that 'data dependency' means a September rate hike is very much alive.

In either case, we're going to continue to monitor the USDOLLAR             Index as it too is behaving in a technical manner that would imply the Fed was a bit more hawkish yesterday than appeared at first blush. It seems there is still a rather significant driver afoot: the differential between when markets are pricing the Fed to raise rates; and when the Fed is telling markets it may raise rates.

The current consolidation in the USDOLLAR             Index since July 15, in context of the break of the downtrend from the April             and June swing highs, implies a bull flag may be forming. With H4 indicators returning to bullish territory (daily Stoch and MACD already in positive territory), momentum may start to gather pace should recent swing highs near 12063 give way; risk should be contained just below recent range lows near 11977.

The alternative outcome (the main one we're considering given current information, amid a nuanced set of possible future outcomes) would be for a double/triple top forming against 12063 with a break under 11977. In that case, the measured move would point towards 11891. which would result in a retest of former trendline resistance off of the April             and June swing highs.
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