4xForecaster
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#USDollar May Cede To Bears | $DXY $USD $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD

FX:USDOLLAR   Dollar Index
Friends,

USDollar             completed two superimposed bearish geometries, indicating high-probability decline in the most immediate times, as far as the 4-hour timeframe is concerned - See following H4 chart:


snapshot


In the longer timeframe (Daily), a bearish follow-through from the H4 chart would open the floor up to the following targets - A conditional structure would add further credence to this bearish outlook, resting at 11634:

1 - TG-Lo = 10981 - 10 AUG 2015

2 - TG-Lox = 10691 - 10 AUG 2015

and

3 - Watch Line = 10503 - 10 AUG 2015


Following is the DAILY chart illustrating above Predictive/Forecasting model's targets:


snapshot


OVERALL:

Look for congruent price behavior, predictive analysis and forecasting among the majors to support this integrative probability.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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Comment: 23 OCT 2015 - Following will be a cut/paste of prior "Chart Update" and "Tech-Note" comments, so as to keep the chronological order of analysis separate from discussion thread.

David Alcindor
Comment: 12 AUG 2015 - UPDATE: Hit WW's Target

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
#USDOLLAR hit target as WW's 1-4 Line; Bears remain in charge:

snapshot


$USD $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD $CHF $DXY #forex
----------

snapshot


David Alcindor

==========

21 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
#USDOLLAR falls as forecast; Breaks 2-4 dynamic support; Opens floor to bears:

snapshot


$USD $DXY $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $CHF
----------

David Alcindor

==========
Comment: 25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE (Late Post from yesterday on Twitter/LinkedIn):

----------
$USDOLLAR still rolling since 11993 forecast; Bear targets in WEEKLY chart:

http://buff.ly/1NEXxoc

$USD $DXY $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD
----------

David Alcindor

==========

ADDENDUM - Updated chart as of this morning (25 AUG 2015):

snapshot


David Alcindor

==========

25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
#USDOLLAR INDEX followed forecast closely; Here is a probable interim pathway:

snapshot


$USD $DXY $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD
----------

David Alcindor

==========

26 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
#USDOLLAR rallied to R/S zone as forecast; Expecting limited upside:

snapshot


$USD $DXY #euro $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD $CHF
----------

David Alcindor

==========
Comment: 05 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn: Update:

#USDOLLAR: Larger Geo takes over smaller geometry; Forecast remains bearish:

snapshot


$USD $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD #forex

David Alcindor

==========

08 SEP 2015 - As a symmetry is working its way up into this probable top, watch also for the current decline, which by nature of its moving against the dominant UP-trend should be developing internal corrective (COR) waves.

Yet, this is exactly NOT what is happening - What is the ONE and ONLY corrective element that is allowed to carry an impulse (IMP) as its initial corrective leg?


ANS:

The Elliott Wave Zig-Zag, or simply written as "ZZ".

So, what is the point about this feature? this feature carries the potential of starting a more complex correction, breaching across the recent heights ... Worth following closely.

snapshot


Note that it may not be the ZZ itself carrying price to loftier levels, but the initiation of a more involved and protracted COR that could do so.

David Alcindor

==========
Comment: 16 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

#USDOLLAR - Geo likely to define Point-4 next via high-probability bearish targets as shown:

snapshot


$DXY $UUP #forex

David Alcindor

==========

ADDENDUM - Note that I have shifted Point-3 in anticipation of a probable protracted consolidation pattern developing, and carving out a higher-low (defining Point-4) and a higher-high (defining Point-5) - The targets, defined in the charts represent high-probability attainment levels, with Watch Line ("WL") representing a low-tolerance, which if breached, would require moving the timeframe to daily x 4 = weekly level (always moving a timeframe where a WL breach occurs by a factor of 4, e.g.: M14 x 4 = hourly, H1 x 4 = H4, ... etc).

David Alcindor

==========
Comment: 17 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$USDOLLAR still moving as forecast, eyeing interim structural support in the 11883/11856 range:

snapshot


$USD $DXY #euro

David Alcindor

==========

18 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update: Target #1 Hit

$USD Index hits 1st bearish target from 16 SEP forecast; Possible floor near 11820:

snapshot


$EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $CHF

David Alcindor

==========

19 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

#dollar index rolled, hit target, receded as forecast; Bears weakening; Upside potential:

snapshot


#euro $DXY #forex $USD

David Alcindor

==========

28 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As price continues to escalate, I have posted the Predictive/Forecasting Model's upper-most tolerance level at 12260.00. Using the actual historical highs reached recently, I have also added Fibonacci scales and highlighted the tightest clusters, which happen to correspond with the most proximal bearish target defined in the original predictive analysis and forecasting - Here is the WEEKLY chart as it stands at this moment:

snapshot


David Alcindor

====================
Comment: 23 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note


First, I apologize about the back-and-forth in the enumeration of waves. I am most interested in the relative degree of wave development, and I do this over a blank chart once in a while, taking the older chart, erasing the geometries, keeping the targets and revisiting potential geometric development - Nonetheless, the consistency will remain in the most important aspect of the analyses, which is in the targets.

Following is the current state of affairs, taking an intrigued look at the potential development of an ending diagonal in a primary five wave:

snapshot


There is some relative differences in wave in the largest gist, but for now, I am paying particular attention to internal wave counts relative to their next degree up, for which there is little doubt, such as the current geometric development in BLUE is possibly a complex corrective geometry.

An alternate interpretation would consider Intermediate Point-(A) be replaced by a Primary Point-1-circled (not shown).

However, the operational bias that prevents the alternate view is based on the foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model which allows for a less-probable, but possible (Watch-Line" attainment, defined as:

- WL = 12260 - 28 SEP 2015

I would expect that further modification be applied to the price field until more clear price action can inspire sufficient confidence in my wave count - All further discussion I would generate would thus be more of speculative, time-wasting, coprolalia.

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price is pushing through and tends toward the Predictive/Forecasting Model's WL value:

snapshot


Note that this is occurring right where other $USD pairs are nearing reversal (see recent updates and tech-notes in $NZD, $USDCAD, $USDCHF, $USDMXN, $USDNOK and $USDZAR ... Interesting, whereas the anticipation here is for $USD to decline, note that only the $USDCNY is set to rally as a contrarian ... Is the Fed willing to give its Asian a "little help for my friend"?

Will continue to follow this index closely.

David Alcindor
Comment: ADDENDUM - Invalidation would occur if price BACA > WL = 12260.

David Alcindor
Comment: 19 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Expecting current decline to be limited, temporary ... WL pending:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 17 JAN 2016 - Update:

Just posted on Twitter/Linked-In:

#USD Index hit WL Line - Hints Probable Reversal:

http://bit.ly/1MVyM8u


David Alcindor

#dollar $EUR $JPY $CAD $GBP $CHF $AUD
Comment: Addendum - Chart:

snapshot



David Alcindor
Comment: 04 FEB 2016 - Chart Update:
snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 26 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to dashed-line forecast. Expect significant resistance to occur at a probable lower-high:
snapshot


As you may recall, 2 years ago (May 2014), I posted this chart:
snapshot

(Source: http://bit.ly/1OfWsSd)

The chart implies that, while a sustained rally occurred as forecast, an interim relaxation of price to the downside is now quite probable. In such a case, consider a Fibonacci-based retracement in the order of 0.386, 0.500 or 0.618, although 0.785 remains a probable level of support as well.

Here is where the $DYX chart (monthly) stands at this time, illustrated with probable Fib support levels:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 26 FEB 2016 - ADDENDUM:

This Geo heralds a "Worse Case Scenario":
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 24 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Chart has been updated, with interim pattern expected as A-B-C-D-E at the Elliott Wave Intermediate Degree (RED):
snapshot


The original bearish targets remain unchanged.

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 24 APR 2016 - ADDENDUM;

Note that this expanding A-B-C-D-E triangle in the Elliott Wave intermediate degree does NOT require a validation of the A-C Line to validate Point-E. In fact, this pattern can be completed and validated at a distance that is short of Point-E along this A-C Line. Hence, a re-validation of the WL = 12,260 level (defined last September 2015) remains a potential level of reversal as well.

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 20 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Price remains under bearish pressure - Higher top before reversal may be supplanted by a bearish H&S pattern:

snapshot
Comment: 27 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

snapshot


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 23 NOV 2016 - Chart Update

Hesitating on the possibility of an expanding triangle, conflicting with Predictive/Forecasting Model:
snapshot


David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
snapshot


+2 Reply
@iefan - There are two conflicting patterns:

1 - EW's Expanding Triangle

versus

2 - ATHENA

Right now, financial markets are calling for tops, yet there are inter-market conflicts are well (none the least was last period's POSITIVE correlation between $GLD and $UUP, which is expected to be a RARE occurence, except in major crisis, or what I'd call a significant "RESET").

snapshot


David
Reply
Looks like your last chart published 5 months ago is playing out perfectly....Point E reached! Legendary!
Reply
David, with regards to 24 APR 2016 update for USDOLLAR :: Here in this forecasting chart, USDOLLAR wave 3 from mid 2014 to January 2015 was able to bring USOIL down about 60%. Dotted line forecast showing USDOLLAR rise from D to E looks quite short to bring USOIL about the same percentage down to target near 21 from the current 46, as you have laid out the same thesis in USOIL and UKOIL forecast thread. Moreover, after E target is reached, USDOLLAR looks to be forecasting commodity bull market. Please explain. Thanks!
Reply
Hi David, Any updates on this?
+1 Reply
Hello @ChetanFX - I have not added any more technical comment on the $DXY per se. However, the $USDollar index is the most recent correlated chart I have followed:
snapshot


See analysis here: http://bit.ly/1Pvikey

What i expect at this point is a decline to the levels defined in the #USDollar index chart. So far, the 12260 level continues to hold, with a recent throw-down carving a new low at 12040. If price closes below this 12040 mark, there is a greater chance that price would continue to decline.

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
@ChetanFX, here is the chart illustrating this 12040 threshold:
snapshot


David
+3 Reply
ChetanFX 4xForecaster
SO do you think it will bounce from here?
+1 Reply
@ChetanFX - The implication of the chart is that it would decline. Bouncing suggests a rallying.

I am not sure what you mean by "bounce"

David
+2 Reply
ChetanFX 4xForecaster
I mean correction at that point.
+1 Reply
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