4xForecaster
Short

#USDollar May Cede To Bears | $DXY $USD $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD

FX:USDOLLAR   Dollar Index
a year ago
Friends,

USDollar             completed two superimposed bearish geometries, indicating high-probability decline in the most immediate times, as far as the 4-hour timeframe is concerned - See following H4 chart:


snapshot


In the longer timeframe (Daily), a bearish follow-through from the H4 chart would open the floor up to the following targets - A conditional structure would add further credence to this bearish outlook, resting at 11634:

1 - TG-Lo = 10981 - 10 AUG 2015

2 - TG-Lox = 10691 - 10 AUG 2015

and

3 - Watch Line = 10503 - 10 AUG 2015


Following is the DAILY chart illustrating above Predictive/Forecasting model's targets:


snapshot


OVERALL:

Look for congruent price behavior, predictive analysis and forecasting among the majors to support this integrative probability.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----


.
a year ago
Comment: 23 OCT 2015 - Following will be a cut/paste of prior "Chart Update" and "Tech-Note" comments, so as to keep the chronological order of analysis separate from discussion thread.

David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 12 AUG 2015 - UPDATE: Hit WW's Target

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
#USDOLLAR hit target as WW's 1-4 Line; Bears remain in charge:

snapshot


$USD $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD $CHF $DXY #forex
----------

snapshot


David Alcindor

==========

21 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
#USDOLLAR falls as forecast; Breaks 2-4 dynamic support; Opens floor to bears:

snapshot


$USD $DXY $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $CHF
----------

David Alcindor

==========
a year ago
Comment: 25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE (Late Post from yesterday on Twitter/LinkedIn):

----------
$USDOLLAR still rolling since 11993 forecast; Bear targets in WEEKLY chart:

http://buff.ly/1NEXxoc

$USD $DXY $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD
----------

David Alcindor

==========

ADDENDUM - Updated chart as of this morning (25 AUG 2015):

snapshot


David Alcindor

==========

25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
#USDOLLAR INDEX followed forecast closely; Here is a probable interim pathway:

snapshot


$USD $DXY $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD
----------

David Alcindor

==========

26 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
#USDOLLAR rallied to R/S zone as forecast; Expecting limited upside:

snapshot


$USD $DXY #euro $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD $CHF
----------

David Alcindor

==========
a year ago
Comment: 05 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn: Update:

#USDOLLAR: Larger Geo takes over smaller geometry; Forecast remains bearish:

snapshot


$USD $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD #forex

David Alcindor

==========

08 SEP 2015 - As a symmetry is working its way up into this probable top, watch also for the current decline, which by nature of its moving against the dominant UP-trend should be developing internal corrective (COR) waves.

Yet, this is exactly NOT what is happening - What is the ONE and ONLY corrective element that is allowed to carry an impulse (IMP) as its initial corrective leg?


ANS:

The Elliott Wave Zig-Zag, or simply written as "ZZ".

So, what is the point about this feature? this feature carries the potential of starting a more complex correction, breaching across the recent heights ... Worth following closely.

snapshot


Note that it may not be the ZZ itself carrying price to loftier levels, but the initiation of a more involved and protracted COR that could do so.

David Alcindor

==========
a year ago
Comment: 16 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

#USDOLLAR - Geo likely to define Point-4 next via high-probability bearish targets as shown:

snapshot


$DXY $UUP #forex

David Alcindor

==========

ADDENDUM - Note that I have shifted Point-3 in anticipation of a probable protracted consolidation pattern developing, and carving out a higher-low (defining Point-4) and a higher-high (defining Point-5) - The targets, defined in the charts represent high-probability attainment levels, with Watch Line ("WL") representing a low-tolerance, which if breached, would require moving the timeframe to daily x 4 = weekly level (always moving a timeframe where a WL breach occurs by a factor of 4, e.g.: M14 x 4 = hourly, H1 x 4 = H4, ... etc).

David Alcindor

==========
a year ago
Comment: 17 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$USDOLLAR still moving as forecast, eyeing interim structural support in the 11883/11856 range:

snapshot


$USD $DXY #euro

David Alcindor

==========

18 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update: Target #1 Hit

$USD Index hits 1st bearish target from 16 SEP forecast; Possible floor near 11820:

snapshot


$EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $CHF

David Alcindor

==========

19 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

#dollar index rolled, hit target, receded as forecast; Bears weakening; Upside potential:

snapshot


#euro $DXY #forex $USD

David Alcindor

==========

28 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As price continues to escalate, I have posted the Predictive/Forecasting Model's upper-most tolerance level at 12260.00. Using the actual historical highs reached recently, I have also added Fibonacci scales and highlighted the tightest clusters, which happen to correspond with the most proximal bearish target defined in the original predictive analysis and forecasting - Here is the WEEKLY chart as it stands at this moment:

snapshot


David Alcindor

====================
a year ago
Comment: 23 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note


First, I apologize about the back-and-forth in the enumeration of waves. I am most interested in the relative degree of wave development, and I do this over a blank chart once in a while, taking the older chart, erasing the geometries, keeping the targets and revisiting potential geometric development - Nonetheless, the consistency will remain in the most important aspect of the analyses, which is in the targets.

Following is the current state of affairs, taking an intrigued look at the potential development of an ending diagonal in a primary five wave:

snapshot


There is some relative differences in wave in the largest gist, but for now, I am paying particular attention to internal wave counts relative to their next degree up, for which there is little doubt, such as the current geometric development in BLUE is possibly a complex corrective geometry.

An alternate interpretation would consider Intermediate Point-(A) be replaced by a Primary Point-1-circled (not shown).

However, the operational bias that prevents the alternate view is based on the foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model which allows for a less-probable, but possible (Watch-Line" attainment, defined as:

- WL = 12260 - 28 SEP 2015

I would expect that further modification be applied to the price field until more clear price action can inspire sufficient confidence in my wave count - All further discussion I would generate would thus be more of speculative, time-wasting, coprolalia.

Best,

David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price is pushing through and tends toward the Predictive/Forecasting Model's WL value:

snapshot


Note that this is occurring right where other $USD pairs are nearing reversal (see recent updates and tech-notes in $NZD, $USDCAD, $USDCHF, $USDMXN, $USDNOK and $USDZAR ... Interesting, whereas the anticipation here is for $USD to decline, note that only the $USDCNY is set to rally as a contrarian ... Is the Fed willing to give its Asian a "little help for my friend"?

Will continue to follow this index closely.

David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: ADDENDUM - Invalidation would occur if price BACA > WL = 12260.

David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 19 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Expecting current decline to be limited, temporary ... WL pending:

snapshot


David Alcindor
10 months ago
Comment: 17 JAN 2016 - Update:

Just posted on Twitter/Linked-In:

#USD Index hit WL Line - Hints Probable Reversal:

http://bit.ly/1MVyM8u


David Alcindor

#dollar $EUR $JPY $CAD $GBP $CHF $AUD
10 months ago
Comment: Addendum - Chart:

snapshot



David Alcindor
10 months ago
Comment: 04 FEB 2016 - Chart Update:
snapshot


David Alcindor
9 months ago
Comment: 26 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to dashed-line forecast. Expect significant resistance to occur at a probable lower-high:
snapshot


As you may recall, 2 years ago (May 2014), I posted this chart:
snapshot

(Source: http://bit.ly/1OfWsSd)

The chart implies that, while a sustained rally occurred as forecast, an interim relaxation of price to the downside is now quite probable. In such a case, consider a Fibonacci-based retracement in the order of 0.386, 0.500 or 0.618, although 0.785 remains a probable level of support as well.

Here is where the $DYX chart (monthly) stands at this time, illustrated with probable Fib support levels:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
9 months ago
Comment: 26 FEB 2016 - ADDENDUM:

This Geo heralds a "Worse Case Scenario":
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
7 months ago
Comment: 24 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Chart has been updated, with interim pattern expected as A-B-C-D-E at the Elliott Wave Intermediate Degree (RED):
snapshot


The original bearish targets remain unchanged.

Best,

David Alcindor
7 months ago
Comment: 24 APR 2016 - ADDENDUM;

Note that this expanding A-B-C-D-E triangle in the Elliott Wave intermediate degree does NOT require a validation of the A-C Line to validate Point-E. In fact, this pattern can be completed and validated at a distance that is short of Point-E along this A-C Line. Hence, a re-validation of the WL = 12,260 level (defined last September 2015) remains a potential level of reversal as well.

Best,

David Alcindor
5 months ago
Comment: 20 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Price remains under bearish pressure - Higher top before reversal may be supplanted by a bearish H&S pattern:

snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: 27 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

snapshot


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
10 days ago
Comment: 23 NOV 2016 - Chart Update

Hesitating on the possibility of an expanding triangle, conflicting with Predictive/Forecasting Model:
snapshot


David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
holy cow
Reply
AristotelCostel NickCoulby
a year ago
Higher low. :D
Reply
12 AUG 2015 - UPDATE: Hit WW's Target

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
#USDOLLAR hit target as WW's 1-4 Line; Bears remain in charge:

snapshot


$USD $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD $CHF $DXY #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David, do you expect a retest of the 2 - 4 Line before further decline?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
a year ago
Hello @iefan - It appears that it already occurred (not so much in relation to the geometry's 2-4 Line, but as a retracement to slightly above the 12040 level - The dashed line was forecasting this slight reprieve against a dominant bearish downturn.

A rallying to the physical 1-4 Line is possible, allowing price to carve out a lower-high. If this were to occur, then consider a down-sloping trendline from Point-5, hitting the next lower-high and the possible upcoming one, as a matter of possible (i.e.: less than probable) interim rally.


David
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thank you very much David, I understand, it makes perfect sense.
+1 Reply
21 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
#USDOLLAR falls as forecast; Breaks 2-4 dynamic support; Opens floor to bears:

snapshot


$USD $DXY $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $CHF
----------


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Yahia.Awes
a year ago
snapshot
Reply
Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
a year ago
I smell retest of 99 area. A lot or resistances there and that daily divergence on support is no joke... Already confirmed see yesterdays candle and today opened green.
+1 Reply
25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE (Late Post from yesterday on Twitter/LinkedIn):

----------
$USDOLLAR still rolling since 11993 forecast; Bear targets in WEEKLY chart:

http://buff.ly/1NEXxoc

$USD $DXY $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD
----------


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
ADDENDUM - Updated chart as of this morning (25 AUG 2015):


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
#USDOLLAR INDEX followed forecast closely; Here is a probable interim pathway:

snapshot


$USD $DXY $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD
----------


David Alcindor
+5 Reply
26 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
#USDOLLAR rallied to R/S zone as forecast; Expecting limited upside:

snapshot


$USD $DXY #euro $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD $CHF
----------


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
mkdeep04
a year ago
snapshot
wolf
Reply
mkdeep04 mkdeep04
a year ago
12145 resist i see
Reply
4xForecaster PRO mkdeep04
a year ago
@mkdeep04 - I am not sure I understand some of your lines. For instance, the red rising line that covers iii. Also, the declining line that starts over V - Feel free to explain.

The numericals i-ii-iii-iv-v would likely satisfy a Wolfe Wave/Geo: Both are rising, both converge.

David
+1 Reply
05 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn: Update:


#USDOLLAR: Larger Geo takes over smaller geometry; Forecast remains bearish:

snapshot


$USD $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD #forex


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
08 SEP 2015 - As a symmetry is working its way up into this probable top, watch also for the current decline, which by nature of its moving against the dominant UP-trend should be developing internal corrective (COR) waves.

Yet, this is exactly NOT what is happening - What is the ONE and ONLY corrective element that is allowed to carry an impulse (IMP) as its initial corrective leg?


ANS:

The Elliott Wave Zig-Zag, or simply written as "ZZ".

So, what is the point about this feature? this feature carries the potential of starting a more complex correction, breaching across the recent heights ... Worth following closely.


snapshot



Note that it may not be the ZZ itself carrying price to loftier levels, but the initiation of a more involved and protracted COR that could do so.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
16 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:


#USDOLLAR - Geo likely to define Point-4 next via high-probability bearish targets as shown:

snapshot


$DXY $UUP #forex


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
ADDENDUM - Note that I have shifted Point-3 in anticipation of a probable protracted consolidation pattern developing, and carving out a higher-low (defining Point-4) and a higher-high (defining Point-5) - The targets, defined in the charts represent high-probability attainment levels, with Watch Line ("WL") representing a low-tolerance, which if breached, would require moving the timeframe to daily x 4 = weekly level (always moving a timeframe where a WL breach occurs by a factor of 4, e.g.: M14 x 4 = hourly, H1 x 4 = H4, ... etc).


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
smitheric1970 PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Your work is amazing David. Judging by this chart you see the DX reaching a 99.5 target?
+1 Reply
17 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:


$USDOLLAR still moving as forecast, eyeing interim structural support in the 11883/11856 range:

snapshot


$USD $DXY #euro


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
18 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update: Target #1 Hit


$USD Index hits 1st bearish target from 16 SEP forecast; Possible floor near 11820:

snapshot


$EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $CHF


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
19 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:


#dollar index rolled, hit target, receded as forecast; Bears weakening; Upside potential:

snapshot


#euro $DXY #forex $USD


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
28 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


As price continues to escalate, I have posted the Predictive/Forecasting Model's upper-most tolerance level at 12260.00. Using the actual historical highs reached recently, I have also added Fibonacci scales and highlighted the tightest clusters, which happen to correspond with the most proximal bearish target defined in the original predictive analysis and forecasting - Here is the WEEKLY chart as it stands at this moment:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
moneymaking
a year ago
Hey David, I was also anticipating the US dollar to depreciate in the coming weeks. But its been going quiet the opposite way. The key point here I believe to note here is that, US dollar was able to break and make a weekly close above 2015 April highs.To me that is signalling the continuation of the bullish trend on US dollar in the coming weeks. Why do you still believe that there is anticipation for USD to decline?
+1 Reply
smitheric1970 PRO moneymaking
a year ago
Agreed short term, we should see strength through december and then it will once again be decision time, I don't think the bears can take over until/unless no rate hike is announced... of course that's coming from the fundamental end.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO smitheric1970
a year ago
Hello @smitheric1970 - Unless the Fed is pointing one way and pulling the strings the other way. Another possibility comes from #euro bulls, or some other central source of dollar selling - It'll all make sense if and once we get there.

David
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO moneymaking
a year ago
Hello @ moneymaking - My position is purely based on the data generated by my Predictive/Forecasting Model and market geometries - There is no fundamental data that comes into either the "Model" or the geometries, assuming that all of the fundamental news is already discounted and printed in the technical data.

David
+2 Reply
smitheric1970 PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Well said David, I am a big fan and definitely look forward to your updates!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO smitheric1970
a year ago
@smitheric1970 - What fundamental data do you use? Do you inscribe the news in the chart and correlate it with the subsequent price action? Just curious.

According to R.N. Elliott, his market review from about 1930's and back 80 years suggest a slight deviation of the wave forms, but nothing in terms of internal construction. So, a 5-wave remains a 5-wave in its motive force, and a correction remains a 3-wave morphology. But the slope of the waves with increase with market reaction to news.

I'm curious to see whether you or anyone else has any interesting chart to post, reflecting the fundamental input in the price action.

David
+2 Reply
smitheric1970 PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
No I apologize, no fundamental chart. Just an observation based on what seemed to be a DX reaction to Yellen 2 weeks ago and to the NFP/employment reports. I am bearish DX and agree with your charts long term. Short term (5 weeks), I believe the bears will be very patient and wait for the December decision.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO smitheric1970
a year ago
Yes, this is very possible.

Thing is, this is now what has been inculcated in the crowd. This gives the institutional players time and pretext for an untimely reversal, too.

David
+2 Reply
smitheric1970 PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Excellent point! you are correct, this would be their fashion to do this.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO smitheric1970
a year ago
Yes - They now have the creative license to bump up, slash or stay the rates.

What is well known in fundamental data of markets is that central banks do NOT impact price so significantly as to prove control of price over time. Sure, on a H4 or daily chart, the slope of price will move, but the "organism" of which price belongs will have no reaction to the rates.

I am not able to quote the source, as I am not that much into it, but if requested, I will do the foot work, regarding the fact that central banks will more likely tend to react to price action, than price reacting to central bank action.

The classically inculcated economist, or even perhaps the anthropocentrist person will thing otherwise, but it is well documented that no person, government, president, central organization or what has ever change the market in a way that defined a new course.

David
+2 Reply
moneymaking 4xForecaster
a year ago
Awesome, thank you for the clarification David, appreciate it :)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO moneymaking
a year ago
Yes, of course. You are welcome @moneymaking - David
+2 Reply
ChetanFX
10 months ago
Hi David, Any updates on this?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ChetanFX
10 months ago
Hello @ChetanFX - I have not added any more technical comment on the $DXY per se. However, the $USDollar index is the most recent correlated chart I have followed:
snapshot


See analysis here: http://bit.ly/1Pvikey

What i expect at this point is a decline to the levels defined in the #USDollar index chart. So far, the 12260 level continues to hold, with a recent throw-down carving a new low at 12040. If price closes below this 12040 mark, there is a greater chance that price would continue to decline.

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
10 months ago
@ChetanFX, here is the chart illustrating this 12040 threshold:
snapshot


David
+3 Reply
ChetanFX 4xForecaster
10 months ago
SO do you think it will bounce from here?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ChetanFX
10 months ago
@ChetanFX - The implication of the chart is that it would decline. Bouncing suggests a rallying.

I am not sure what you mean by "bounce"

David
+2 Reply
ChetanFX 4xForecaster
10 months ago
I mean correction at that point.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ChetanFX
10 months ago
Are you asking for a up-correction or a down-correction. Still not understanding.

I any case, the net move from here is expected to be DOWN. This does not exclude lower highs, whereas higher-highs (i.e.: new structural highs) are less probable:
snapshot


WORST case scenario, an adverse excursion could occur based on a larger geometry, where Point-E would represent Point-3 of the Geo:
snapshot


David
+4 Reply
ChetanFX 4xForecaster
10 months ago
Got it, Thanks for such detail explanation..
Reply
tfinavia
7 months ago
David, with regards to 24 APR 2016 update for USDOLLAR :: Here in this forecasting chart, USDOLLAR wave 3 from mid 2014 to January 2015 was able to bring USOIL down about 60%. Dotted line forecast showing USDOLLAR rise from D to E looks quite short to bring USOIL about the same percentage down to target near 21 from the current 46, as you have laid out the same thesis in USOIL and UKOIL forecast thread. Moreover, after E target is reached, USDOLLAR looks to be forecasting commodity bull market. Please explain. Thanks!
Reply
iefan PRO
10 days ago
Looks like your last chart published 5 months ago is playing out perfectly....Point E reached! Legendary!
Reply
iefan PRO
10 days ago
snapshot


+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
10 days ago
@iefan - There are two conflicting patterns:

1 - EW's Expanding Triangle

versus

2 - ATHENA

Right now, financial markets are calling for tops, yet there are inter-market conflicts are well (none the least was last period's POSITIVE correlation between $GLD and $UUP, which is expected to be a RARE occurence, except in major crisis, or what I'd call a significant "RESET").

snapshot


David
Reply
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