CapMoore

Weekly Study of DOLLAR INDEX

FX:USDOLLAR   Dollar Index
49 0 0
Index has completed an ABC127D pattern, with the extended D-level
reached timewise as the harmonious D-level ended in July 2013.
The D127 level was also reached at the top of the LT             Pitchfork.
The Minimum Target of this ABC127D pattern (the 38,2 retracement
of the C127D leg) was hit in Sep 2013, but Index fell further to
the 50% retracement at 10383 in Oct             2013 and then put in a
Morning Star Candlestick pattern right at the lower PF             band.
In Jan 2014, the harmoniousD-level at 10745 was again traded
and held as resistance.
Index turned and tested the Yearly Pivot Point as it also broke
out of the lower Pitchfork band, thus indicating a shift in trend.
(red circle).
The 61,8 of the harmonious CD leg, 10366, was then again tested
twice and held as support, after which Index has rallied from
late June this year up till now, mid Sep.

From a technical point index needs to re enter the PF             to again
resume the uptrend that started in Aug 2011 (yellow circle)
Since Index is trading above Monthly R3, chances are that there
will be a correction before the end of the month, possibly
the lower PF             band. During next week (3rd week of Sep) this
level is approximately 10930. If index will bounce from this
level, a retest of 10745 is one possible level to go long the USD.
Until the D127 level is taken out, there is still a risk of
a double top around 11000, still PA is more in line with
the forming of a new large bull wave in my opinon. Clear
long candles show the direction and market intention medium
term. A bullish scenario may look for index to reach the D161
level in 2015 (if not before). A yearly close above the Yearly
Pivot Point will also be a bullish sign for 2015.
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