Can the corrective down trend be over already?

FX:USDOLLAR   Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index
An attempt of application of Elliot wave theory with fibonacci extension levels seems to indicate the end of a full impulse and correction wave cycle. The 5th wave in this proposition is viewed as an ascending triangle with a break to the downside. The recent rally from support at 11669 could be a reversal in formation, and the start of a range bound movement. Next weeks fed talk and economic data will certainly determine whether this rally has legs. In support of the rally theory we could bring the bounce on the 0.382 retracement level from the previous major rally, which indicates a continuation, rather than a reversal.
The alternative could be a continuation of the current downtrend after a resistance at the very strong 11850 current level.
Short term target: 11900, which if broken could open the way to the 12000 area which is a strong confluent and psychological level.
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