Reversal At 11474? | #forex $EUR $JPY $GBP $CHG $AUD $CAD

FX:USDOLLAR   Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index
1096 24
04 DEC 2014 - Update:


Important NFP data coming out tomorrow. Expectation favors softer employment data.

In the long-term, USDollar index remains bullish . However, the interim calls for unwinding.

Looking at the $USDJPY , model defines a high-target at 120.996 - This nominal target represents a low-probability reach, but high-probability reversal (i.e.: not likely attained, but if so, a significant decline should ensue).

The following chart is looking at a dual view:

1 - Top is $USDJPY


2 - Bottom is $USDJPY tempered by $ES.

The filtered charted below reveals tendencies, such as sustained, but weakened rally within a bullish channel . The second point is a double-top formation, suggesting that $USDJPY's rally weakened against its SP500 futures . The two would tend to maintain a positive correlation. However, if the USDollar bearish force strengthened against the implied market strength, I would expect that this weakness would pervade across other USD crosses.

For instance, we have recently looked at:

1 - The possible topping in $USDRUB:

(Source: )

2 - The potential near-reversal in $XAUUSD:

(Source: )

3 - A technical recovery in $GBPUSD:

(Source: )

4 - A long-awaited Elliott Wave Flat completion in $USDCAD:

(Source: )

5 - A near-complete target-hit in $USDCHF at TG-Hi:

Source: )

6 - A pending 5th wave completion in $EURUSD:

(Source: )

7 - And a similar $AUDUSD geometric completion in $AUDUSD:

(Source: )


In other words, all of these charts are implying a pending reversal on the back of a weakening $USD, at least in the most immediate, smaller timeframes.

Most recently, the $ES analysis also pointed to a potential top, stomped at a 1.618-Fibonacci following a quasi-mechanical ascent, possibly connected to a multi-central bank purchase coordination, according to ZeroHedge.com.

Directional bias rests on Neutral until clear sign of reversal emerge.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

Twitter: @4xForecaster
19 DEC 2014 - Quick Note:

Price is winding a symmetrical consolidation around TG-x. Bearish scenario remains highly probable, as forecast.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Why are so many traders pessimistic about the US Dollar's near term/intermediate performance? We've got the possibility of QE springing up where there is deflation or rapidly slowing growth, that's about every developed, developing nation in the world.

US Dollar is strong vs. Everything Else
+1 Reply
4xForecaster QuantitativeExhaustion
True. As mentioned before, the L/T and M/T outlook is very bullish. On a technical basis, the chart is calling for a respite in the S/T - David
I suppose if Drahgi drags his feet and China mutes stimulus talks, there could be a US Dollar pushback. However, seems the trend started by US and now Japan is starting a currency war, race to the bottom.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster QuantitativeExhaustion
Japan has been racing to the abysm for many years.

There is no doubt that USDJPY will keep on going up and up if it is true that central banks (with an S) have coordinated stock purchases across the board - Per Zerohedge.com article:

- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-03/central-bank-buying-sp-500-futures-extended-until-end-2015

In any case, this makes any analysis a bit hard to come up with "normal ranges', which is why so many of my recent targets had to be defined by TG-x (extreme targets), which is a parameter I never had to use before this summer or so.

+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
Gassho David. Interesting about the extreme targets. Any finer time frames for xag or xau?
Sokun 4xForecaster
The Euro, firmly entrenched in cause (building) since 2008, continues trending toward major support 119.12 Breaking the ice of this support, a technical catastrophe for the bulls, would transition the Euro from cause to mark down phase.

Sokun Sokun
This cycle transition, while generally initiating a period of consolidation, doesn't necessary forecast a sharp decline. Price enter a sideways chop or even increase during negative to positive oscillation. The observation of strength when weakness is expected is called an inversion. Inversions often setup sharp rallies once the cycle returns to bull. 

Sokun Sokun
I believe DXY topped @89, this bear crab provided nice resistance.
+1 Reply
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