4xForecaster

Reversal At 11474? | #forex $EUR $JPY $GBP $CHG $AUD $CAD

FX:USDOLLAR   Dollar Index
04 DEC             2014 - Update:


Friends,

Important NFP data coming out tomorrow. Expectation favors softer employment data.


In the long-term, USDollar             index remains bullish . However, the interim calls for unwinding.

Looking at the $USDJPY             , model defines a high-target at 120.996 - This nominal target represents a low-probability reach, but high-probability reversal (i.e.: not likely attained, but if so, a significant decline should ensue).

The following chart is looking at a dual view:

1 - Top is $USDJPY            

and

2 - Bottom is $USDJPY             tempered by $ES.


snapshot


The filtered charted below reveals tendencies, such as sustained, but weakened rally within a bullish channel . The second point is a double-top formation, suggesting that $USDJPY's rally weakened against its SP500             futures . The two would tend to maintain a positive correlation. However, if the USDollar             bearish force strengthened against the implied market strength, I would expect that this weakness would pervade across other USD crosses.

For instance, we have recently looked at:

1 - The possible topping in $USDRUB:

snapshot
(Source:
Potential Top-Reversal
)


2 - The potential near-reversal in $XAUUSD:

snapshot
(Source:
Forecast Recap | $XAU $USD $Gold $EUR $AUD $CAD #forex
)


3 - A technical recovery in $GBPUSD:

snapshot
(Source:
Bears Pound Sterling | $GBP $USD #Forex
)


4 - A long-awaited Elliott Wave Flat completion in $USDCAD:

snapshot
(Source:
Trade Opp Using #elliottwave, Symmetry & Fibonacci | $CAD #forex
)


5 - A near-complete target-hit in $USDCHF at TG-Hi:

snapshot
Source:
Nearing Resistance Per Wolfe Waves | $USD $CHF $XAU #forex
)


6 - A pending 5th wave completion in $EURUSD:

snapshot
(Source:
Eyes 50% #Fibonacci Recovery | $EUR $USD #forex
)


7 - And a similar $AUDUSD geometric             completion in $AUDUSD:

snapshot
(Source:
$AUD Signals Limited Retrace, Then Continued Bear | #Forex $USD
)


OVERALL:

In other words, all of these charts are implying a pending reversal on the back of a weakening $USD, at least in the most immediate, smaller timeframes.

Most recently, the $ES analysis also pointed to a potential top, stomped at a 1.618-Fibonacci following a quasi-mechanical ascent, possibly connected to a multi-central bank purchase coordination, according to ZeroHedge.com.

$ES Rolled From 1.618-#fibonacci; Bears in Force | $SPX $SP500

Directional bias rests on Neutral until clear sign of reversal emerge.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

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19 DEC 2014 - Quick Note:

Price is winding a symmetrical consolidation around TG-x. Bearish scenario remains highly probable, as forecast.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Why are so many traders pessimistic about the US Dollar's near term/intermediate performance? We've got the possibility of QE springing up where there is deflation or rapidly slowing growth, that's about every developed, developing nation in the world.

US Dollar is strong vs. Everything Else
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
True. As mentioned before, the L/T and M/T outlook is very bullish. On a technical basis, the chart is calling for a respite in the S/T - David
Reply
I suppose if Drahgi drags his feet and China mutes stimulus talks, there could be a US Dollar pushback. However, seems the trend started by US and now Japan is starting a currency war, race to the bottom.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
Japan has been racing to the abysm for many years.

There is no doubt that USDJPY will keep on going up and up if it is true that central banks (with an S) have coordinated stock purchases across the board - Per Zerohedge.com article:

- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-03/central-bank-buying-sp-500-futures-extended-until-end-2015


In any case, this makes any analysis a bit hard to come up with "normal ranges', which is why so many of my recent targets had to be defined by TG-x (extreme targets), which is a parameter I never had to use before this summer or so.

David
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
Gassho David. Interesting about the extreme targets. Any finer time frames for xag or xau?
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
The Euro, firmly entrenched in cause (building) since 2008, continues trending toward major support 119.12 Breaking the ice of this support, a technical catastrophe for the bulls, would transition the Euro from cause to mark down phase.

Reply
Sokun Sokun
This cycle transition, while generally initiating a period of consolidation, doesn't necessary forecast a sharp decline. Price enter a sideways chop or even increase during negative to positive oscillation. The observation of strength when weakness is expected is called an inversion. Inversions often setup sharp rallies once the cycle returns to bull. 

Reply
Sokun Sokun
Usd
Reply
I believe DXY topped @89, this bear crab provided nice resistance.
snapshot
+1 Reply
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