4xForecaster

Reversal At 11474? | #forex $EUR $JPY $GBP $CHG $AUD $CAD

FX:USDOLLAR   Dollar Index
04 DEC 2014 - Update:


Friends,

Important NFP data coming out tomorrow. Expectation favors softer employment data.


In the long-term, USDollar             index remains bullish . However, the interim calls for unwinding.

Looking at the $USDJPY             , model defines a high-target at 120.996 - This nominal target represents a low-probability reach, but high-probability reversal (i.e.: not likely attained, but if so, a significant decline should ensue).

The following chart is looking at a dual view:

1 - Top is $USDJPY            

and

2 - Bottom is $USDJPY             tempered by $ES.


snapshot


The filtered charted below reveals tendencies, such as sustained, but weakened rally within a bullish channel. The second point is a double-top formation, suggesting that $USDJPY's rally weakened against its SP500             futures . The two would tend to maintain a positive correlation. However, if the USDollar             bearish force strengthened against the implied market strength, I would expect that this weakness would pervade across other USD crosses.

For instance, we have recently looked at:

1 - The possible topping in $USDRUB:

snapshot
(Source:
Potential Top-Reversal
)


2 - The potential near-reversal in $XAUUSD:

snapshot
(Source:
Forecast Recap | $XAU $USD $Gold $EUR $AUD $CAD #forex
)


3 - A technical recovery in $GBPUSD:

snapshot
(Source:
Bears Pound Sterling | $GBP $USD #Forex
)


4 - A long-awaited Elliott Wave Flat completion in $USDCAD:

snapshot
(Source:
Trade Opp Using #elliottwave, Symmetry & Fibonacci | $CAD #forex
)


5 - A near-complete target-hit in $USDCHF at TG-Hi:

snapshot
Source:
Nearing Resistance Per Wolfe Waves | $USD $CHF $XAU #forex
)


6 - A pending 5th wave completion in $EURUSD:

snapshot
(Source:
Eyes 50% #Fibonacci Recovery | $EUR $USD #forex
)


7 - And a similar $AUDUSD geometric             completion in $AUDUSD:

snapshot
(Source:
$AUD Signals Limited Retrace, Then Continued Bear | #Forex $USD
)


OVERALL:

In other words, all of these charts are implying a pending reversal on the back of a weakening $USD, at least in the most immediate, smaller timeframes.

Most recently, the $ES analysis also pointed to a potential top, stomped at a 1.618-Fibonacci following a quasi-mechanical ascent, possibly connected to a multi-central bank purchase coordination, according to ZeroHedge.com.

$ES Rolled From 1.618-#fibonacci; Bears in Force | $SPX $SP500

Directional bias rests on Neutral until clear sign of reversal emerge.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
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* * * REPOSTING TEXT SO THAT CHART BECOME VISIBLE * * *


04 DEC 2014 - Update:


Friends,

Important NFP data coming out tomorrow. Expectation favors softer employment data.


In the long-term, USDollar index remains bullish. However, the interim calls for unwinding.

Looking at the $USDJPY, model defines a high-target at 120.996 - This nominal target represents a low-probability reach, but high-probability reversal (i.e.: not likely attained, but if so, a significant decline should ensue).

The following chart is looking at a dual view:

1 - Top is $USDJPY

and

2 - Bottom is $USDJPY tempered by $ES.


snapshot



The filtered charted below reveals tendencies, such as sustained, but weakened rally within a bullish channel. The second point is a double-top formation, suggesting that $USDJPY's rally weakened against its SP500 futures. The two would tend to maintain a positive correlation. However, if the USDollar bearish force strengthened against the implied market strength, I would expect that this weakness would pervade across other USD crosses.

For instance, we have recently looked at:

1 - The possible topping in $USDRUB:

snapshot

(Source:
Potential Top-Reversal
)


2 - The potential near-reversal in $XAUUSD:

snapshot

(Source:
Forecast Recap | $XAU $USD $Gold $EUR $AUD $CAD #forex
)


3 - A technical recovery in $GBPUSD:

snapshot

(Source:
Bears Pound Sterling | $GBP $USD #Forex
)


4 - A long-awaited Elliott Wave Flat completion in $USDCAD:

snapshot

(Source:
Trade Opp Using #elliottwave, Symmetry & Fibonacci | $CAD #forex
)


5 - A near-complete target-hit in $USDCHF at TG-Hi:

snapshot

Source:
Nearing Resistance Per Wolfe Waves | $USD $CHF $XAU #forex
)


6 - A pending 5th wave completion in $EURUSD:

snapshot

(Source:
Eyes 50% #Fibonacci Recovery | $EUR $USD #forex
)


7 - And a similar $AUDUSD geometric completion in $AUDUSD:

snapshot

(Source:
$AUD Signals Limited Retrace, Then Continued Bear | #Forex $USD
)


OVERALL:

In other words, all of these charts are implying a pending reversal on the back of a weakening $USD, at least in the most immediate, smaller timeframes.

Most recently, the $ES analysis also pointed to a potential top, stomped at a 1.618-Fibonacci following a quasi-mechanical ascent, possibly connected to a multi-central bank purchase coordination, according to ZeroHedge.com.

$ES Rolled From 1.618-#fibonacci; Bears in Force | $SPX $SP500


Directional bias rests on Neutral until clear sign of reversal emerge.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
00000

+3 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Superb David! All in one - very nice juxtaposition. I'm not sure that NFP will be soft or we will see once proof that technicals are over fundamentals. Last week we saw after not so bad report dollar selling.
+1 Reply
04 DEC 2014 - ADDENDUM: CARNEY PATTERN DEVELOPMENT

- The Bearish Butterfly

As implied in the original analysis, but left without commentary, the pattern trader might have deciphered a potential Scott Carney's Butterfly development.

The XA * 1.618-Fib represents the maximum allowable price expansion, although most of the Butterfly have a propensity to resolve at 1.414 * XA. This maximal expansion speaks rather well of this market's taut properties.

While this pattern lays in the background, the foreground is defined by the predictive/forecasting model, whose target rests slightly above the Butterfly's loftiest wing (Point-D, remaining pending per model).


snapshot




David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Tech-Note:

Those interested in discreet events, you might notice the 0.618-Fibonacci alignments between the XA impulse and the CD impulse.

More importantly, this alignment comes to rest right at Point-B of the underlying Bearish Butterfly pattern, offering price a resting level of confluence, as defined by the 10782/10759 range - See chart:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Ansari
2 years ago
hi,many thanks.
snapshot
+1 Reply
fximperija
2 years ago
I believe DXY topped @89, this bear crab provided nice resistance.
snapshot
+1 Reply
Sokun fximperija
2 years ago
http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.ca/2014/12/us-dollar-building-cause.html?m=1
Reply
Sokun Sokun
2 years ago
Any comments please?
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
2 years ago
@david. Gassho!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
2 years ago
Hello @Sokun - I won't open outside links anymore. Too many problems. Feel free to explain the content though - David
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
The technical setup below, suggests nothing more than cause - accumulation of energy to transition the dollar from cause to mark up or mark down, must be recognized by investors. A close above 88-89 jumps the creek of resistance. Experience traders would be buyers of any failed decline (false breakdowns) once price jumps the creek.  Failed declines are part of the cycle of accumulation and distribution. 

+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
2 years ago

Url link wont post chart
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
2 years ago
Yes, any failure to turn bearish is only proof of added strength. Investors look at L/T, and they would be right to remain bullish. Traders live at different levels of timeframes. Banks have taken mixed positions recently, adding to the possibility of a S/T relief. Whether this occurs or not is simply a matter of fact that can be dealt with once we cross that bridge - David
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.ca/?m=1 is worth adding to the knowledge base imo. Please take a look.
Reply
Sokun Sokun
2 years ago
Any comments ?
Reply
Why are so many traders pessimistic about the US Dollar's near term/intermediate performance? We've got the possibility of QE springing up where there is deflation or rapidly slowing growth, that's about every developed, developing nation in the world.

US Dollar is strong vs. Everything Else
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
True. As mentioned before, the L/T and M/T outlook is very bullish. On a technical basis, the chart is calling for a respite in the S/T - David
Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I suppose if Drahgi drags his feet and China mutes stimulus talks, there could be a US Dollar pushback. However, seems the trend started by US and now Japan is starting a currency war, race to the bottom.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Japan has been racing to the abysm for many years.

There is no doubt that USDJPY will keep on going up and up if it is true that central banks (with an S) have coordinated stock purchases across the board - Per Zerohedge.com article:

- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-03/central-bank-buying-sp-500-futures-extended-until-end-2015


In any case, this makes any analysis a bit hard to come up with "normal ranges', which is why so many of my recent targets had to be defined by TG-x (extreme targets), which is a parameter I never had to use before this summer or so.

David
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Gassho David. Interesting about the extreme targets. Any finer time frames for xag or xau?
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
The Euro, firmly entrenched in cause (building) since 2008, continues trending toward major support 119.12 Breaking the ice of this support, a technical catastrophe for the bulls, would transition the Euro from cause to mark down phase.

Reply
Sokun Sokun
2 years ago
This cycle transition, while generally initiating a period of consolidation, doesn't necessary forecast a sharp decline. Price enter a sideways chop or even increase during negative to positive oscillation. The observation of strength when weakness is expected is called an inversion. Inversions often setup sharp rallies once the cycle returns to bull. 

Reply
Sokun Sokun
2 years ago
Usd
Reply
19 DEC 2014 - Quick Note:

Price is winding a symmetrical consolidation around TG-x. Bearish scenario remains highly probable, as forecast.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
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