Important NFP data coming out tomorrow. Expectation favors softer employment data.
In the long-term, USDollar index remains . However, the interim calls for unwinding.
Looking at the $USDJPY , model defines a high-target at 120.996 - This nominal target represents a low-probability reach, but high-probability reversal (i.e.: not likely attained, but if so, a significant decline should ensue).
The following chart is looking at a dual view:
1 - Top is $USDJPY
2 - Bottom is $USDJPY tempered by $ES.
The filtered charted below reveals tendencies, such as sustained, but weakened rally within a . The second point is a double-top formation, suggesting that $USDJPY's rally weakened against its SP500 . The two would tend to maintain a positive correlation. However, if the USDollar force strengthened against the implied market strength, I would expect that this weakness would pervade across other USD crosses.
For instance, we have recently looked at:
1 - The possible topping in $USDRUB:
2 - The potential near-reversal in $XAUUSD:
3 - A technical recovery in $GBPUSD:
4 - A long-awaited Flat completion in $USDCAD:
5 - A near-complete target-hit in $USDCHF at TG-Hi:
6 - A pending 5th wave completion in $EURUSD:
7 - And a similar $AUDUSD geometric completion in $AUDUSD:
In other words, all of these charts are implying a pending reversal on the back of a weakening $USD, at least in the most immediate, smaller timeframes.
Most recently, the $ES analysis also pointed to a potential top, stomped at a 1.618-Fibonacci following a quasi-mechanical ascent, possibly connected to a multi-central bank purchase coordination, according to ZeroHedge.com.
Directional bias rests on Neutral until clear sign of reversal emerge.
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
There is no doubt that USDJPY will keep on going up and up if it is true that central banks (with an S) have coordinated stock purchases across the board - Per Zerohedge.com article:
In any case, this makes any analysis a bit hard to come up with "normal ranges', which is why so many of my recent targets had to be defined by TG-x (extreme targets), which is a parameter I never had to use before this summer or so.