As you may recall, a few days ago, I posted a DAILY chart of the USDollar index, in which the model defined a top-most target ("TG-x") at 11474 - See this chart and analysis here: tradingview.com/v/OgNcDiNn/ .
While price did hit that target and has since weaved a near-symmetrical consolidation pattern around this forecast level, I thought it prudent to look at that level with refined data at a larger (i.e.: institutional) framework - In fact, I decided to use a composite view of the chart by applying the forecasting/predictive model over several timeframes. What ensued are TWO tight levels of probable reversal (based on the nominal nature of the target) and one outer-most value derived from the WEEKLY chart, such that:
Nominal target and outer most:
1 - TG-Hi = 11529 - 24 DEC 2014
2 - TG-Hi = 11560 - 24 DEC 2014
and
3 - TG-x = 11655 - 24 DEC 2014
The interest here is to arrive at a tight correlation between this composite and prior analysis, without having to chase price out of bound.
As defined before, the nominal targets are named levels, such as "Hi", "Lo" and "x", defining a low-probability attainment with high-probability reversal values (i.e.: price has less of a chance to reach these levels, but if and once it does, it will not just retrace, but reverse in the Fibonacci order of a minimum of 0.618 - This is in contrast to numerical targets defining retracement levels in the Fibonacci order of 0.382 to 0.618).
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
In its technical context, one may also appreciate the ascent of price within a well-defined bullish channel. This channel, as any other, has buffer zone: A hard outer shell, and a softer margin, defined in the chart by fainter lines.
As price rose to the current TG-Hi = 11560 level, one may also appreciate that:
1 - The price bar closed right at that TG-Hi value of 11560
and
2 - Price closed right at the buffer line.
Note that the hard outer shell has only a single point to account for its existence, and that it is drawn out of the total symmetry of the channel. In contrast, the inner buffer line is born out of three validation points. For this reason, this buffer line carry more authoritative power against price advance than any other line.
PATTERN ANALYSIS:
A Bearish Butterfly outlined in the chart offers an added technical support, which may also very well play towards a market consensus against further advance. The residence of Point-5 is unusual, but Fibonacci based, considering its 1.786-Fib mark-up relative to Points XA.
OVERALL:
if indeed price were to roll from here, look for a significant support at a level corresponding to Point-3 of the L/T impulse. This happens to fall in line with a modular core-symmetry highlighted in the chart.
Failure of this level would thus open the floor to 10323. However, a 9773 would also be offering an ultimate support per predictive model.
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
Following is an adjustment of the Geo, based on the most recent plots:
David Alcindor