The dollar has been losing some steam, but I am concerned about the monetary policies of the US. I am simply noting that there is some technical reasons for a pullback to this zone. If the dollar holds the Senkou then we could see a real thumping of associated pairs, but I don't know what will happen. The lower timeframes are pointing to pullbacks or corrections. On the Weekly though, a bullish break seems likely. There has been a real fight (volume) to bring strength back into this, note the extraordinary spikes beginning in late April. This is going to effect all the US pairs as well as metals. We shall see.
Comments
Ronnee
⋅
Very good evening to you..yes, I think we have followed the US in many ways...once/ is a much respected country by us..warm regards and good luck..so very sorry for the victims of your latest meanilist terror attack..changing gun laws won't help now,the horse has bolted! They will still get the guns if they want them..so sad...bye Ron.
ShirokiHeishi
⋅
Thank you for that.
Ronnee
⋅
Thanks for your very thoughtfull reply....what you have written is so very close to what has/is happening here in NZ. Although on a much smaller scale, but exactly the same on most points...As we relie heaveily on exports our dollar is grossly overvalued...we would also at present have one of the highest int rates of the developed countries..this intern,I feel, is keeping our dollar up from overseas money coming here. Our int rates are not high on the past but are ahead of most others..however, house prices are out of control because they are seen to be low @5% mortgage rate. Immigrants , speculators, are forcing them to average 1 million in Auckland . The young,first home buyers,renters etc are being put on the streets. Same employment things are happening here.part time jobs, cheap immigrant labor, no real jobs....anyways I'm just a silly old kiwi retiree struggling along to the end.....haha once again thanks and cheers and good luck. Ron. NZ
.
ShirokiHeishi
⋅
Thanks for your insight, had no idea it was so similar over there, sounds like you are in the beginning of the 2008 US housing market crash cycle. Stay well informed and try to enjoy retirement. I am trying to retire, not there yet. Best of trading to you.
Warm regards,
Shiroki
Ronnee
⋅
What chance you give a rate increase Wednesday, and the effect this would have to USD and the economy in the big picture? Would it help or hinder the economy in the next term? They need to get some inflation happening so business can get motivated and lift prices so can employ more, lift wages etc..etc. I know on the negative side, loan rates inc, student loans inc,,,,....to secure Clinton they have to do something or they will end up with Trump! Few thoughts Ron NZ
ShirokiHeishi
⋅
If rates get raised it stings for a few months and then mother market carries on with her business. Point of fact is I don't know what the Fed will do and neither do they. US economy is far worse than suggested. Student loans, subprime car loans, trillions of quantitative easing(loans to ourselves from printed money). These things we all know. The fed changed how they measure inflation and how they measure unemployment to make sure it looks better than it really is. Inflation now considers concrete aggregate prices(for example) but not food or gasoline. Not a true measure of inflation at the household level. Unemployment numbers are obviously fixed when unemployment goes down, but labor participation went down (not working) and full time work is in actuality part time meaningless jobs in the service sector. Demand always drives prices. No one is looking to hire, because no one has disposable income to spend on their expensive goods. We have a dichotomous relationship with business here. We want higher wages and American jobs, but can't afford American labor to produce it and require tariffs on imports to stay competitive. Our economy is transitioning to one of high tech and service only, manufacturing is done. We had 60 years of that. Growing pains for the next two terms is more likely than not. The US dollar is grossly overvalued, and the sooner it comes back to reality the better. Only after the forcible pain of a revaluing of the US dollar can we begin to heal. Think of the Swiss Franc last year. They needed to it for many of the same reasons when connected to the Euro as we need to today. In short to steal a line from Livermore; the fed can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Gold/silver/us pairs all go up when dollar shrinks.