4xForecaster

#USDollar May Recover ALong Wolfe Wave | $USD #euro #forex

FX:USDOLLAR   Dollar Index
Friends,

A punishing day that was for the US Dollar             today, upon central bank words that a rate hike would likely be delayed.

The move in the USDollar             index weaved a familiar Wolfe Wave geometry, completing at its Point-5, as shown in the following chart:


snapshot


Based on this 4-hour chart, one should consider the probability of a reactive rally. Look for a commitment (BACA) across the 1-3 Line, with a high-probability attainment of the 1-4 Line, the exact price level being likely at a corresponding 0.618 or 0.786 Fibonacci value.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

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18 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

As per Geo's OffSet Rule, this geometry is now falling under the geometric rules of the Geo, defining the level of Point-4 as the new HIGH-PROBABILITY target, whereas the 1-4 Line now falls back to a lesser probability level (Geo's "OffSet Rule"):


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
18 JUN 2015 - In effect, this suggests that the USDollar will likely remain subdued to bearish pressures, and continue to behave with consistence to yesterday's central bank decision, which is likely to weigh on the USD over the next days or weeks.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
a year ago
agreed, I've been tracking this smaller WW within that larger one you have outlined:

I see a last little 5th wave with some divergence coming to tap the S2, which would correspond with resistance on the EU chart around 1.145

thoughts?

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO G_Man
a year ago
Hello @G_Man - Yes, my own model calls for a probable further carving into lower-lows, the depth of which might be best estimated using a 1.414 or 1.618 extension off of points 1 and 2 in your chart.

A parallel line taken from your points 2 and 4, then projected off of Point-3 will offer another possible target/support along that line, while the convergence of the Fib defined above and this 2-4 Line translation might possibly point to a price definition defining a counter-trend level.

I am noting in your chart that you have chosen a lower spike to define your point-4. If you were to construct the convergent point just defined, I would recommend that the higher spike be used for that point-4, so that the angle of the 2-4 Line remains true to the potential definition of that Fib x 2-4Line convergent point.

David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Here is a rendition of the idea just described:


snapshot



In this chart, it should become apparent that RSI remains in a taut level, and that price can easily excurse to the geometry's 2-4 Line originating from Point-3 (dashed BLUE line, which would turn the Wolfe Wave into a Geo, in terms of strategic decisions, such as abandoning the standard 1-4 Line as a target, and instead turning to the level of Point-4 as the new, highest-probability level of attainment - a.k.a.: "OffSet Rule of Geo").

David
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
FUNDAMENTAL DATA:

"Philly Fed manufacturing index (June) 15.2 vs. exp 8.0 (Prior 6.7)"

Well, here is the latent data giving pretext for price to do what it already knew to do.


David
+2 Reply
18 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$USDOLLAR under fundamental lift; Expect probable cap at level defined in chart:

snapshot


$USD $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
19 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$USDOLLAR rises as forecast; Expect resistance, pushback at geometry's underside:

snapshot


$USD $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
22 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$USDOLLAR moving as forecast; Testing geometry underside; Bulls remain in charge:

snapshot


#USDollar $DXY #euro $USD $EUR
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
26 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$USDOLLAR nears resistance ahead as forecast; Bears remain in force:

snapshot


$USD #euro $XAU #gold #usdollar $DXY #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
28 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$USDOLLAR hit target as forecast at 11917; Opens to lesser probability 1-4 Line:

snapshot


#USDollar $USD #euro $XAU #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Would the usd have to hit the 1 4 line befor xua and euro start moving twords there tg?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
Hello @Sokun - Sorry I did not read/answer your question sooner.

This is a very valid question, as it addresses the synchronous action of price across Forex and indices.

Very often, you will see that one would reach a target, then consolidate, giving time for another chart (be it a similar index or a completely different vehicle, such as a correlated Forex pair) to complete its own move. This is best seen between $USDollar and $DXY for instance as far as indices, or say $XAUUSD and $AUDUSD, as far as index vs. correlated Forex pair comparison.


David
Reply
02 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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#USDOLLAR retests prior target level corresponding to Point-4; Mulls 1-4 Line validation; Bears still in charge:

snapshot

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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
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