350 likely in the near term -------------------------------------- -------------------------------------- Technical (Behavioral) factors (short term to medium term) ------------------------------------ - Consolidation period become shorten (rectangles) - Historical correction range (10 to 11%) which has been completed in the current correction phase - Tested current support upward support and resumed upward journey - Extreme oversold momentum and trend indicators
Macro finance factors (medium term) --------------------------------------------- - Increasing real interest rate differentials comparing with developed markets (portfolio channel) - Increasing inflation differentials with developed market (Current account channel) - Current account equations are in elastic to FX rates (current account channel) - High risk premiums of equities, long duration bonds and real estate (Portfolio channel)
Macro finance factors (long term) --------------------------------------------- - Lower productivity levels and potential GDP growth (reduced from 6% to 4% in recent years) - Expected lower natural real exchange rate (long run equilibrium exchange rate - NATREX)
Market Micro structure factors (short term) ----------------------------------------------------- - unwinding short forward position by exporters - unwinding of short positions by importers - unwinding of short positions by small investors due to crack down (investor sentiments)