The currency pair is still in the uplink. Looking at the currency pair, striking candle figure 2 with an interval of a week. Morning and . Reversal pattern on this pair is ready.
We retain a negative view against the Russian currency. This view is based solely on macro-economic factors, as well as . The current situation in the oil market creates high risks in the economy and in terms of the balance of payments in terms of GDP growth, and most importantly in terms of budget execution. Thus, lower oil prices give rise to the following factors:
- For the execution of the budget deficit to 3% following items are required parameters in the oil price:
$ 25 per barrel: 140 rubles / $ 1
$ 30 per barrel: 105 rubles / $ 1
$ 35 per barrel: 94 rubles / $ 1
$ 40 per barrel: 84 rubles / $ 1
$ 45 per barrel: 70 rubles / $ 1
- Reduction of the trade surplus of the Russian Federation in 2015 amounted to 23%
- Real disposable income as real consumer demand from the population decreased.
- Real interest rates are in negative territory (interest rate in Russia 11%, is accounted for 12.91%)
- Drivers of economic growth there and segodnshny day we do not see a clear and clear economic policy and economic goals.
- A gradual increase in interest rates the Fed will eventually have to bring more capital outflow from Russia than it is now, it is best suited for an example in which the outflow of China amounted to US $ 1 trillion.)
- The difference in DCT Fed and the will soon play a greater role than it is now.
We maintain a long-term forecast for USD / RUB 100 p / $.
Krastkosrochny forecast assumes a return to the highs of the year.
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