Fundamentals: Russia's exports fell sharply after the invasion in 2022. Russian trade surplus continues between exports and import has fallen in the last 18 months.
"...the limited number of potential buyers for Russian crude and refined products increased their bargaining power, allowing purchasers to demand greater discounts to the global market" (dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/1010). "Russia’s export revenue from crude and refined products fell 30 percent from the first half of 2022 to the first half of 2023, while volumes were largely stable."
"Price discounts for crude oil will likely persist because of the bifurcation of buyers and the extended distance exports must travel to their destination. Piped gas volumes to Europe continue to remain low. While Russia aims to increase exports of natural gas to China, it will take many years to build new pipelines." (dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/1010)
"With measures targeting Russian exports likely to persist, the country’s balance of payments will remain under pressure, leading to continuing currency weakness." (dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/1010)
Technicals: Weekly and Daily HHHL USD/RUB weekly retracement to 91 or 92 38% fib support Weekly uHd developing
Projection: USD/RUB will rise to 125 by February or March 2024.
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USD/RUB has reached monthly kijun support + the 50% fib level Possible shark or cypher pattern developing tenkan/kijun up cross Possible bounce from here...
Trade active
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It looks like the bottom is in after two months of retracement. Technically, there is uHd and a morning star candle pattern at monthly kijun support, which is also a 50% fib level from the range of May 2023 to August 2023.
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Weekly zoom!
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re-newed buy signal for USDRUB. However, I have closed the position flat and have moved cash over to stocks for investment.
@BlackLightX1, It is too flat. I closed and rolled over to US stocks like SMCI and Nvidia. Stocks are where it is at. :)
Rocketman
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Weekly zoom!
johnmuhriddin
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you gave 2 ideas and still its going down? How many times are you going to enter trade till its up?
Rocketman
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@johnmuhriddin, only a losing trader with a losing mindset would ask such nonsense. Here is a tip for you: I recommend a book called "Fundamentals of Currency Trading" by Karen Foo.
Rocketman
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@johnmuhriddin, And, now it is moving up. Why? Because fundamentals rule the world.