U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble
Long
Updated

USDRUB upside potential 20%

526
Almost 2 years later, the government completely abolishes the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings for exporters.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has begun a cycle of rate cuts.
The budget deficit continues to worsen. The budget needs a higher exchange rate
Today, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is very tightly clamping down on the money Supply and historically this has led to a sharp jump in the exchange rate
We expect the usdrub to be around 95 rubles per dollar
Trade active
The idea is going according to plan.

Several factors can contribute to the implementation of the idea👇

1. a rate cut is an increase in demand for imports and a reduction in the trade balance

2. 🛢OPEC+ is pumping the market with an ever-increasing volume of oil against the backdrop of tariff wars and the risks of a slowdown in the global economy, which again leads to a reduction in our trade balance (today we wrote our view on oil)

3. there are risks of delaying the negotiation process, which leads to a new phase of budget overstrain

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