AdrianRaymondFX

The Russian ruble might come back under pressure soon

FX_IDC:USDRUB   US DOLLAR / RUSSIAN RUBLE
People are starting to talk about the Russian ruble             again after 3 months of practically no chatter on the Twittersphere following the December RUB crisis. Amazingly, the ruble             is one of the best currencies in 2015. Given the poor fundamentals in the Russian economy, I'm starting to become a bit skeptical on the potential for further USDRUB             losses over the medium term (I told my Russian friends in December to hold tight and to NOT start converting to USD as there would likely be a bounce at the start of 2015 on people stopped talking about the RUB on CNBC). Looking at the USDRUB             daily chart , I note that the RSI is in oversold territory for the first time since May 2014. At the same time, the USDRUB             is about 100 pips from its 200-day moving average (49.47). I'd be looking for support and signs of bottoming somewhere between 47.70 (prior resistance in November) and 49.47. That said, I don't really believe that this pair is one that should be traded, and I'm not personally looking for any exposure here. I just think that the chart is interesting at a time where people are starting to talk about how much the ruble             is bouncing back this year.

JohnKeverich
2 years ago
At the end of the day the value of the Russian currency will be decided by the price of oil. As long as Brent keeps edging up, we can see even lower levels in USDRUB.
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This was a good forecast.
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godarME
a year ago
Greate analysis - being russian myself i watched closely it's movement - still do :) Low was around 48.5 - exactly as you foretold.The price moved up more then 20% since
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