AndyM

USDRUB some more upside, then a sizable correction

MOEX:USDRUB   U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble
Hi All,
Here's an update on USDRUB             .

Althouth the wave structure of the ascending impulse seems almost complete, there seems to be still one small wave 5 missing at the top. Please refer to the chart for more commentary on this.

In the essense, the upward movement that we have since mid May does indeed seem to be wave 5 of a larger impulse that started in 2014. This is not wave B or wave X of any sort because the relation of wave durations seems much more appropriate for it to be an impulsive wave 5 rather than anything else. And since it's more likely to be wave 5, then we need another small subwave 5 to have the structure complete.

The whole setup makes me think that the decline in Crude is not complete either. So I would dare say that we are going to see just another low in Crude, maybe retesting the low and penetrating it by a few pips somewhere end Sept - beg. October.
I agree with completely different analysis (bollinger stuff)... looks like the old rouble is falling again!

+1 Reply
there's no way USD/RUB will hit 50 any time soon
+1 Reply
Great, I'm of the same idea regarding crude. Very hard that it's done, even though it's correcting.
Would take a major paradigm shift for it to reverse.
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