Your analysis is a load of crap, although an intertaining one:
*The rouble is driven by oil prices more than anything else.
*The vertical rise is due to Russian central bank free-floating the rouble earlier than planned.
*Real estate market does not collapse in a month, unless you live in Ukraine where all mortgages are dollar-denominated. lol
adammska
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Ok, this latest interest rate hike by the RCB is going to cause real problems even for the ruble denominated mortgages. Let's hope it won't last very long.
vortexspaces
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here we go, everything happened fast. Expect 60-70 in feb
ap3rus
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Lol as it seems I'd say expect 100 by Jan.
adammska
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Russia defies all logic and common sense.
dp
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Your point about real estate is quite interesting.
Getting back to 1998 crisis, it has been one year lag between ruble crash and real estate collapse. It took one year for average Russian to get rid of savings, spending them on buying real estate 'cause "There is nothing more safe than real estate in crisis time" :)
When those saving have been spent, it crashed.
Starting from this analogy , I'd rather place real estate collapse at summer 2015.
Regarding point B -- local finance people position it at 40-45 for mid-December. Too many unknowns, though, including Central Bank policy.
*The rouble is driven by oil prices more than anything else.
*The vertical rise is due to Russian central bank free-floating the rouble earlier than planned.
*Real estate market does not collapse in a month, unless you live in Ukraine where all mortgages are dollar-denominated. lol