Price has reached strong fibo level (96.64) and we can see bearish 1 Week engulfing candle forming that shows selling presure. Generally what is happening? I draw 2 scenarios how price can act in the nearest future. 1 scenario: price will revers at about 97 rubles or 113 rubles by making sellers liquidity area and will head down to grab buyers liquidity (less than 50 rubles) for further up movement to 137 rubles (sellers liquidity swap). 2 scenario: price continues an uptrend straight away to 137 rubles after what big drop will take place to 50 rubles (less than 50 rubles). In my subjective opinion first scenario is more likely to happen. But for me 96 rubles level isn't a final line for a drop. If we go to lower timeframes we will see imbalance at 110 rubles level. So I'm waiting price to reach 113 rubles (fibo + 1W order block) and then look for shorts.
As usual, cheers for sharing this @margarita_morozova. However, I don't get the logic in this view, what are the driving forces to support an appreciating rouble? This has been your option for the past year and only the opposite has occurred, with the reversal level always increasing. In order for the pair to drop to the buyer's liquidity area there has to be concrete reasoning behind this. Are you hoping for new strong capital controls, improvements in gov. surplus, etc? We saw the March to June 22' gains as a direct result of high commodity prices/sale volumes, interest rates, and strict capital controls. The losses from June 22 to Aug 23' are likewise the result of an inverse of these actions. Thanks for sharing more context to support this.