MOXCEN
Long

USDRUB is going for 113 and 128.

MOEX:USDRUB_TOM   USD/RUB TOM
It seems that the 2nd wave is done (or we're in ending) and we're going to see 113 rubles per dollar in 3 to 6 months.
KK78 PRO
6 months ago
If Rub goes below 60, is the EW count still valid??
Thanks,
Kirill
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MOXCEN KK78
6 months ago
Kirill, this setup is ok, till USDRUB won't touch 60. I gonna send the alternative sceneries later.
Moe
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KK78 PRO MOXCEN
4 months ago
the beginning?? :)
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MOXCEN KK78
4 months ago
On my view, WTI ( #usoil ) is going to test $40 and $35 in 2 months. Therefore, Russian Ruble is going to test a new High. As you see the first target is 113 RUR per USD.
I'd be happy if you share your view on USD/RUR. Thank you.
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KK78 PRO MOXCEN
4 months ago
On WTI: Clearly we are in a new trend down, the RUb is lagging, so will catch up fast
From Feb om wti i can count 5 waves, so it could be Wave A or WXY correctionm therefore I expect at least 50% retracement to 39usd or even .618% to 35.80, then possibly WAVE C to above around 64 usd per barrel next few months
However if we see a bounce from 61.8 and then breaking of .618 to downside it will be oil 26, then possibly 16 usd ... but too early to confirm, its just an option

On the RUb:
72-74, then have to watch the price action, possibly to 100
But then again dont forget that Russian Central Bank will definately support phsycological level of 100 (local elections and political stability etc also as a factor)
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MOXCEN KK78
4 months ago
snapshot
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MOXCEN KK78
4 months ago
snapshot
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MOXCEN KK78
4 months ago
snapshot
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KK78 PRO MOXCEN
4 months ago
good one, any consideration for an option for an irreglar ABC from april 2015? Cause I dont see a clear 5 wave down July 2015?
thanks
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KK78 PRO KK78
4 months ago
I mean 5th wave finishing August 2015, then Irregular ABC with C finishing JUly 2016
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MOXCEN KK78
4 months ago
snapshot
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MOXCEN KK78
4 months ago
Please see my chart.
snapshot


Actually, I think in next couple of years we are moving in the $25 to $60 channel.
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KK78 PRO MOXCEN
4 months ago
good thinking, but lets see how we manage to hold 35-36 thats the key I think
WTI didnt break 52 properly. If you draw a line ther is a strong resistace line from 1990 through 2008 and 2015 monthly chart. WTI hit it and fell off, so it would be very hard to break it to the upside again in the case of ABC on your chart

ALso if your first chart on Rub correct, then WTI would fall to 26-16 same as you said Rub would go to 113 in 3-6 months. Oil and RUb very correlated, at least for now :)

KK
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MOXCEN KK78
4 months ago
Thank you.
You're right.
The correlation between Russian Ruble and crude oil is tight. But please don't forget USD/RUR currency pair is also tightly correlated to US Dollar Index (DXY). I mean it's possible to have $35-$40 per barrel and 100 Rubles per Dollar.
In 2-3 weeks, I hope we can see a better view of market.
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KK78 PRO MOXCEN
4 months ago
Yes agree :)
Possible but there would be some balance as oil priced in usd, so if DXY rallies all commodities should decline some more some less, I presume. And yes in the worst case scenario, the DXY and oil move in tandem and it would be a a double hit.
On DXY:
If we break 97.6 it can jump to 100, and on weekly if we break 100 we fly to 120, in my view
+1 Reply
MOXCEN KK78
4 months ago
I agree, if we break 100 we fly to 120.
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KK78 PRO MOXCEN
4 months ago
Moxcen, need your opinion on the RUB

Do you consider as an option the following:

June 2012 was First wave
Dec 2014 was Third wave
Jan 2016 was Fifth wave

July 2016 A
Now B wave to 74-77
and potentially Wave C to 50-53

And only then we would have a big Third wave to 120+

What do you think??

Thanks

KK
+1 Reply
MOXCEN KK78
4 months ago
I'm not sure. I don't trade USD/RUR. Actually, I'm watching this currency pair to manage my portfolio.
As you said, We can move up to 74-77 and then move down to a new low, lower than 62. Yes, It's possible.
I think in 2-3 weeks, we can make a better decision on this currency pair.
Therefore, I'm not going to change my mind (this model) for this currency pair.
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MOXCEN KK78
4 months ago
As you wrote couple of days ago: "WTI didnt break 52 properly. If you draw a line ther is a strong resistace line from 1990 through 2008 and 2015 monthly chart. WTI hit it and fell off, so it would be very hard to break it to the upside again in the case of ABC on your chart".

I want to ask your opinion about the following ABCDE correction:

snapshot
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KK78 PRO MOXCEN
4 months ago
Hi Moxcen,
Your count could be right. But as we both agree earlier, we need to wait and see feww weeks, really uncertain now. ALso please note ABCDE or any other triangles are very hard to predict...

What bothers me in WTI:
That move from Feb to June that you count as A wave, I ve spend time looking at it in detail. And even though one can count 5 waves up, as you know EWaves are very ambiguous, and If you look at it in detail there, it could also be ABC zigzag, with B in March. The biginning of that correction in Feb 11-22 looks like expanding 1st wave or expanding triange, that fact brings doubts to my count of a clear wave up...
Also the way WTI going now very strong alsmot vertical descent indicated that it is some sort of 3 rd wave in ABC or in 5 wave down happening, so again I am watching 36 level and probably get out shorts there, then re-enter if that level is broken strongly

Regards,
KK
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MOXCEN KK78
4 months ago
Hi KK,

Thank you for your reply.
You're right. I gonna send WTI charts latter.
On my view Feb 2016, Wave 5 of 3 is done.
Feb 2016, Brent did wave five of three a couple of weeks before WTI.
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KK78 PRO MOXCEN
3 months ago
Hi Moxcen, any thoughts on the Rub now )
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MOXCEN KK78
3 months ago
Hi KK78, let me see, maybe we've done the 2nd wave. Please see the chart here:
snapshot
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KK78 PRO MOXCEN
3 months ago
Yes agree, but brent is unpredictable, what a rally we had for the last couple of weeks! ate all my profits :(
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MOXCEN KK78
3 months ago
Oh, sorry man. You're right. See WTI here:
snapshot

I hope this time we're going down.
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KK78 PRO MOXCEN
3 months ago
sht happens)
as an addtional count I can count B where you have W. But likely I consider it b where you have X of ABC, so wave C down still possible
However what I dont like about the whole bearish scenario right now is that wave B or W at you chart retraced arnd 50% of A (feb-Jul) what is a classic B 50% retracement what is of a big concern
The only thing keeps me warm in ling USDRUB is the channel on weekly OIL graph from may 2005 )
plus some potential border connflict etc (Olympics are over, so could be some action) Hope it would be peacefull with now victims just a bit of testostorone and guns piu piu )))
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MOXCEN KK78
3 months ago
KK78, thank you for your reply. Still I'm not sure that wave X is done. If wave X isn't done, so this wave is wave C. Therefore we're going to $60.
I expect wave X is done and we're going to see WTI lower than $40.
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