From Feb om wti i can count 5 waves, so it could be Wave A or WXY correctionm therefore I expect at least 50% retracement to 39usd or even .618% to 35.80, then possibly WAVE C to above around 64 usd per barrel next few months
However if we see a bounce from 61.8 and then breaking of .618 to downside it will be oil 26, then possibly 16 usd ... but too early to confirm, its just an option
On the RUb:
72-74, then have to watch the price action, possibly to 100
But then again dont forget that Russian Central Bank will definately support phsycological level of 100 (local elections and political stability etc also as a factor)
WTI didnt break 52 properly. If you draw a line ther is a strong resistace line from 1990 through 2008 and 2015 monthly chart. WTI hit it and fell off, so it would be very hard to break it to the upside again in the case of ABC on your chart
ALso if your first chart on Rub correct, then WTI would fall to 26-16 same as you said Rub would go to 113 in 3-6 months. Oil and RUb very correlated, at least for now :)
The correlation between Russian Ruble and crude oil is tight. But please don't forget USD/RUR currency pair is also tightly correlated to US Dollar Index (DXY). I mean it's possible to have $35-$40 per barrel and 100 Rubles per Dollar.
In 2-3 weeks, I hope we can see a better view of market.
Possible but there would be some balance as oil priced in usd, so if DXY rallies all commodities should decline some more some less, I presume. And yes in the worst case scenario, the DXY and oil move in tandem and it would be a a double hit.
If we break 97.6 it can jump to 100, and on weekly if we break 100 we fly to 120, in my view
Do you consider as an option the following:
June 2012 was First wave
Dec 2014 was Third wave
Jan 2016 was Fifth wave
July 2016 A
Now B wave to 74-77
and potentially Wave C to 50-53
And only then we would have a big Third wave to 120+
What do you think??
As you said, We can move up to 74-77 and then move down to a new low, lower than 62. Yes, It's possible.
I think in 2-3 weeks, we can make a better decision on this currency pair.
Therefore, I'm not going to change my mind (this model) for this currency pair.
I want to ask your opinion about the following ABCDE correction:
Your count could be right. But as we both agree earlier, we need to wait and see feww weeks, really uncertain now. ALso please note ABCDE or any other triangles are very hard to predict...
What bothers me in WTI:
That move from Feb to June that you count as A wave, I ve spend time looking at it in detail. And even though one can count 5 waves up, as you know EWaves are very ambiguous, and If you look at it in detail there, it could also be ABC zigzag, with B in March. The biginning of that correction in Feb 11-22 looks like expanding 1st wave or expanding triange, that fact brings doubts to my count of a clear wave up...
Also the way WTI going now very strong alsmot vertical descent indicated that it is some sort of 3 rd wave in ABC or in 5 wave down happening, so again I am watching 36 level and probably get out shorts there, then re-enter if that level is broken strongly
as an addtional count I can count B where you have W. But likely I consider it b where you have X of ABC, so wave C down still possible
However what I dont like about the whole bearish scenario right now is that wave B or W at you chart retraced arnd 50% of A (feb-Jul) what is a classic B 50% retracement what is of a big concern
The only thing keeps me warm in ling USDRUB is the channel on weekly OIL graph from may 2005 )
plus some potential border connflict etc (Olympics are over, so could be some action) Hope it would be peacefull with now victims just a bit of testostorone and guns piu piu )))