Aggressive enough a long-term forecast for the pair USDRUB. 90->70->105->80->165->105->135->23-35 (in perspective of 2027 year and further)
Does not constitute a recommendation. #investing #stocks #idea #forecast #furoreggs
Please, subscribe and challenge my point of view )
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Amazing! Who could imagine that it will go to 105 without any correction?! Updating forecast. In perspective of long-long term I still suppose, that it will achieve a peak and will move to 30-50 till the end of this decade.
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Moving exactly refer to the plan. See 2 points of possible bottom: 87 or 76.
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Selected lighter path. But I prefer to continue observing. In general, it is moving near the forecast line.
lol, 1 usd for 35 rubles is a pipe dream...would make Russia crazily expensive, while they are broke (spending on endless and senseless war) it wont get lower than 60, if ever. which i doubt.
furoreggs
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@interloperxx, So many times we have been listening for LoL nowadays. But, nobody asks for our opinion. Only time will solve. Probably, you are right. Only forecast, nothing more.
Najah000
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Amazing analyses, wish you can keep us updated more
aleqvids
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A strong ruble makes it cost prohibitive for Russian oil and gas companies to export large volumes of oil. The ruble will continue to decline relative to the dollar for as long the dollar is the world’s reserve currency and used as the currency of choice to settle energy transactions
ostiaeter
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it'd help if you explained the chart and why you think RUB can reach 150 before dropping to 30-35
furoreggs
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@ostiaeter, my expectations based more on future political events in many countries, mostly in Russia and USA. In flow of preparation of election USA cannot let USD and economics move down till the end of 2024. Simultaneously, since there are a lot of industries in Russia, which export goods and natural resources, in nearest years weak rubble is very profitable for them. Obviously, that for now rubble is overheaten and cannot stay on this level for a long time. Central bank of Russia is already preparing some approach how to sustain the course and if we look deeper, historically, all such CB changes always helped. Basing on this, this pair will go down for some time, but of cause, very soon Russian companies will need to pay for taxes and will need to get much more rubble profit. We will see repeating of waved track in the future. But it cannot get cooking infinitely, as well as a growing course of DXY. So, once we will become eyewitnesses of the broken bubble and correction to the lower historical support line (near 30) to stay prepared then to start a new era for the long iteration.
ostiaeter
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@furoreggs, thanks for the response. Weakening RUB is definitely a positive for exporters in the short-run. But the benefit might be offset by increasing prices of foreign goods so can have a detrimental impact later since consumers and companies still rely on imports from developed countries. If there's an actual risk of USDRUB reaching ~150, I suppose CB won't wait to intervene, which is why i'm skeptical about the price target.
furoreggs
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@ostiaeter, we all playing in the ocean of positive and negative news as well as within the fields of probability. But we need to have a plan, perhaps, some plans. All this gives us a feeling of control )
it wont get lower than 60, if ever.
which i doubt.