People are asking for the update on USDRUB. Nothing really has changed from my previous analysis. The only thing , I was sure that price will react on 87-89 range. But there is no sing of reversal from this level, so the next target is 95 rubles. About the target for shorts. I still think that we going to drop lower than 50 rubles.
Second scenario is when price takes sellers liquidity. Because if we ask ourselves 'what price has made'? Correct answer is -- bearish break of structure (or change of character). So technically we are in a down trend from 2022. But after clear (in our example, bearish) choch price often moves higher to take previous high (121.50) as liquidity and only then price finally drops. I see this scenario all the time on 4h 15m or 5m charts. If so target is 137 rubles for 1 US dollar. But we have to stay positive and pray for 95 rubles level :)
Thanks for sharing. I don't see any grounds for this happening other than CB intervention to control monetary flows. This (artificial monetary controls), coupled with high commodity prices is what took the rouble to 50 levels in 2022. Using purely technical analysis during economically stressful times is a misleading approach. Yes, increasing oil prices and interest rate changes could reduce the depreciating rouble, and we find middle-ground to pre-ukraine levels but nothing to suggest 50 levels other than the implementation of artificial control.
Please add reasoning, other than resistance levels, to what would support such an extreme rouble appreciation to the levels you mentioned. Cheers,
margarita_morozova
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@yividus, Interesting thoughts. Thank you. Maybe I don't understand many things or simplify a lot. However, I perceive the news as information noise, which is a consequence of what is about to happen (or has already happened) in the market. If we look at the monthly EURUSD chart and draw the Fibonacci levels, we will see that the levels from 1.563 to 1.584 were predetermined back in 2004, that a reversal is possible in this price range. And when in 2008 the price reached this level... Everyone knows what happened. And it doesn't matter what smart men in expensive suits said: the mortgage crisis in the United States, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, and so on... long before all these crises and bankruptcies, the market knew that it's going to reverse. And Fibonacci just suggested when this might happen. The market moves the news, and not the other way around. What about USDRUB I will wait for a reaction to 95 rubles and follow the news at the same time. About the target (50 rubles): it's too early to talk about this level in my opinion. I just gave an assumed target. I will update my view when the price reaches 95 rubles.
Suharik-ek
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@margarita_morozova, Margarita, good afternoon! The price has reached the predicted level. I would like to ask you to update this idea. Thanks!
Please add reasoning, other than resistance levels, to what would support such an extreme rouble appreciation to the levels you mentioned. Cheers,