4xForecaster
Long

$USD v. $SEK - Geo Eyes 8.9109 | #elliottwave #fibonacci #forex

FX:USDSEK   U.S. Dollar/Swedish Krona
538 19 19
Friends,

This pair was been quite responsive to the Predictive/Forecasting Model on both large and smaller scale - Although, this there has been only two prior predictive analysis and forecasting - Following are two of these forecasts:

$USDSEK - Short-Term Target ... Hit.
http://bit.ly/1JQPI9O

$USDSEK - Mid-Term Target ... Hit.
http://bit.ly/1O7vuxz


FORECASTING THE HOURLY FRAME:

This time, we return to a "in-between" timeframe, having defined a target as TG-Hi = 8.9109 - 01 OCT             2015 in the hourly timeframe - This target is defined using the Predictive/Forecasting Model as an autonomous feature that I use as my foreground leader.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODE BREAKS DOWN ELLIOTT WAVE AND GEO:

What I have added to the price field are geometries, one borrowed from the Elliott Wave patterns in the form of a triangle, with internals of (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E) defined at the Intermediate Degree (i.e.: wave counts defined over weeks to month) with defining convergence between lines A-C and B-D.

The other is the Geo             , with its own internal requirements, such as a reciprocal ab = cd within the 1-2 Leg, complex zig-zag (typically TZ) within its 2-3 Leg, a simpler ZZ between 3-4 Leg, and convergence of 1-3 and 2-4 lines, both of same directional slope (up in this particular case).

Note that the Geo             was simply born as a refinement of Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave (www.WolfeWave.com) using the Predictive/Forecasting Model as the dissecting tool. In the same manner and procedure as I have dome with the WW leading to refinements of internals and improving the precision of forecasts of reversal levels that would define the entire geometry, I am now turning to Elliott Wave's Contracting Triangle for a similar biopsy, although the waves are already well and authoritatively defined (www.ElliottWave.com) - There is nothing to add here, except being able to predict where whether the triangle will predictably post an overshoot, undershoot or pure alignment with the geometry's A-C line projection. It might not matter in smaller frames, but daily, weekly and monthly might cause unbearable adverse excursions.

Note that in this analysis, the Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes an OVER-shoot at TG-Hi, short of the expected 1.131-Fibonacci level which often defines that overshoot, such that:

E = 1.131 x A.


snapshot


OVERALL:

Bullish outlook with possible interim decline to depths defined in dashed arrows. Target as discussed above.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


------
Twitter: @4xForecaster

LinkedIn: David Alcindor

TradingView: http://www.TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster
-----


.
Comment: 17 NOV 2015 - Chart Update:

No change in daily forecast ... Price remains intent on bullish TG-1 = 8.9109 target, defined last October, 01st 2015:

snapshot


David Alcindor
02 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


So as to clarify the rules here, the Geo is distinct from the Wolfe Wave as there are several geometric compensations affecting the probability of a target once all points are completed. In addition to the standard 5-point plot that can be found in the Wolfe Wave, there are two specific points created as price adversely excurse beyond the confines of the 1-3 and 2-4 lines. At time, price will complete the entire geometry by moving beyond the crossing point of the 1-3 Line, where Point-5 would have been defined, and moves on up to validate the transposed 2-4 Line that originates off of Point-3 (hence to define 5-prime, or 5') or in rarest occasions, off of Point-1 (hence to define 5-second, or 5'').

Note that, based on empirical observations, the frequency of Point-5 compared to 5' and 5'' is such that:

5' > 5 >> 5''.


The importance of these points is that they will define a probability level of target attainment once price reverses from either one of them - This is the basis of the Geo's Off-Set Rule, which states that:

#1 - A price reversing from Point-5 will seek validation of the 1-4 Line as the highest probability event (This IS the Wolfe Wave target per se);

#2 - A price reversing from Point-5' will seek validation at a price level corresponding to that of Point-4 as the highest probability event;

and

#3 - A price reversing from Point-5'' will seek validation at a price level corresponding to that of Point-3 as the highest probability event.


In the analyses that I offer, I have used the Geo as a visual element, giving price an appreciable range of motion that the student of the market can follow, since there is no other instructive element that I can reveal of the Predictive/Forecasting Model, except the target itself, ... What else would you want to know, really. This is done so, as the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which stands on its own and does not look at price, volume or any elements of the chart per se, can only define a trend, a strength, extent of price action, as well as future R/S and reversal levels, as shown multiple times in prior analyses - See some recent analyses: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#i3wn5TOs6r0WY2p2. However, it is not capable to define the most immediate manner by which price would attain the target, at least not in the way that the Geo can. Hence, the combined use of the two is ideal, as they are independent of one another in terms of their conceptual build, but their ability to cross reference a target make it a fairly good tool in my view.

Note here that the Model is calibrated to work best on 4-hour-level chart (synthesis of retail and institutional data), and would tend to lose precision in lower level analyses (retail data).

Thank you for reading thus far.

Best,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Here is the chart, so far, with a target defining Point-4 as a high-probability target if indeed the Model correctly defines not only an overshoot occurrence, but also a validation of the 2-4 Line off of Point-3 (i.e.: 5-prime validation thus seeking level of Point-4 as the highest probability target - Geo's Off-Set Rule #4:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
WOuld indeed look like Inverted head and shoulders then
+1 Reply
Hello @2Use ... Now, that's very true. It would. I have not looked at that, as to where it'd go on the downside (i.e.: taking the head-projection down from shoulder line).

Nice.


David
+2 Reply
2use 4xForecaster
That shoulder should no tbe taken as on the chart - that was a clear freakout and i actually guide by the inside of the fitgure, not how low it went (smoothening as well). You can see the head marked nicely with several days of trading, so upon building up a shoulder and rounding above the head low, i would play this definitely. Down side is that eur/usd tends to be bullish
+1 Reply
@2use - Very cool.

Feel free to post a chart that highlights what you mean.

David
+1 Reply
2use 4xForecaster
Cant link charts that i dont have (not a pro yet). But basically argument contra would be that the shoulder is so low (as the head) that it wont be a head and shoulders. But that day was stretched, so if i check Heiken for instance it smoothes out and it is a clear shoulder. So now im waiting for the other shoulder.
+1 Reply
Got it. Makes sense - David
+1 Reply
06 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Price reached the nadir of dashed forecast arrow; Expecting support in this vicinity:

snapshot



Also, anyone sees a WW/Geo completion at this level?


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
ANS:

Here is the WW/Geo in question:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
06 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Here is the price now at the bottom of the defined range, as WW/Geo completes ... Very high-probability of reversal is now reached:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
06 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
07 OCT 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Heed RSI ... :

snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
07 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

With only 34 minutes left in the current bar, price is nicely coming back down to the level of BACA ... Very nice of the market to do so:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
08 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Price continues to move per forecast; Meets support; Outlook remains bullish - Break below structural low would challenge bullish outlook; Motive wave formation to the downside would invalidate bullish move:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
09 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Price fell to the 5' level; Use Geo's Off-Set Rule #2 as the HIGHEST probability targeting method ... that is, price level corresponding to Point-4 presenting as the highest probability attainment from this level:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
2use 4xForecaster
It feels bearish now? coupled with EUR/USD changing direction and EUR/Sek at a support level, seems to hold
+1 Reply
2use 4xForecaster
Can you update it ?
+1 Reply
Well done
+1 Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out