A with lessons and demonstrations offered over the past 24 hours (See USDTRY, NZDJPY, ... etc), here is another pair worth looking into, not so much from the perspective of a pending geometric completion, but as an example of developing a contingency plan.
Here, we are contemplating a short (green scare representing a conservative, prudent entry point, where price BACA < 1-3 Line as its signal) As the Wolfe Wave/Geo would have it, targeting the 1-4 Line comes to sight, and this would be the right thing to consider at this point.
However, there is a slight possibility that Point-5 of the completed geometry might in fact be a dud, and that instead, the higher-high structure that build atop this point may perhaps represent the residence of Point-3, of a larger geometric system.
As a cautionary measure, I would here recommend the trader to look for added confirmation, such as breaking below prior higher lows (for instance, the one at 8.45, and the one slightly above 8.40), with perhaps partial positioning if that fitted your risk tolerance or strategy style) - See following illustration:
Another typical price behavior worth waiting for is the conversion of the 2-4 Line from a support-to-resistance, which means that price would retrace from a decline and hit the underbelly of the formed geometry, offering a validation signal to go short - See suggested dashed pathway in following illustration:
OVERALL:
In any case, figuring out reasonable and sound price behavior ahead of the game is likely to remove some of the uncertainties that come with this and any other markets - For instance, there still remains the uncertainty whether this pair will ignore the completed geometry, and instead internalize it into a large system. Yet, for this scenario, there is already a contingency plan awaiting in the background, using the Geo's internal construction rules (see prior lessons).
See you on this or other revealing threads.
Best,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA
As price is moving on the forecast direction, consider this internal geometry (PINK) imposing its own demand upon most immediate and subsequent price action. The 2-4 Line of the larger geometry (BLUE) remains an important signal, not only as a shorting signal upon BACA, as well as a dynamic R/S level.
David
4xForecaster
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18 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:
Closed market at Geo's 2-4 Line; Appears to remain in the COR phase, as bearish Predictive/Forecasting Model target remains unanswered:
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
⋅
17 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:
Here is one example illustrating what happens when the operator (i.e.: me, in this case) ignores the rules of the Predictive/Forecasting Model ... The price continued downwards. Had I stay in tune with the fact that the WL was breached, I would have gone up from H1 by a factor of four, or H1 x 4 = H4 to realize that there may have been more legs to the downside.
So, turning back to the H4, here is what the Predictive/Forecasting Model defines as the lower targets ... note that we are now closer to the WL Line belonging to H4, and that we are brushing the TG-Lox target as well:
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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14 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
I have shifted the RED frame to the right, where Point-4 is likely to reside, so as to concentrate visually on the expect IMP move, which appears to be on its way:
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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28 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:
Price commits < 8.44190:
David
4xForecaster
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27 AUG 2015 - Tech-Note:
Consider a break of 8.44190 to be an overture to these lower targets ... The intermediate pink line might impose a delaying obstacle, though - See chart:
David
4xForecaster
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27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Here is a beautiful example illustrating the concept of dynamic R/S valiadtion, where the 2-4 Line acts as a then-support-and-now-resistance, as price breaks support and recoils to validate the underbelly of the geometry's 2-4 Line.
When this happens, the market is calling on your participation. Loudly.
David
4xForecaster
⋅
Here i is with a better encroachment of the 2-4 Line extension:
David
4xForecaster
⋅
26 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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USDSEK just BACA < 2-4 Line; Signals move consistent w/ forecast; Heed internal geometry:
Current price action is a correction, fashioning the end of recent bearish impulse. Look for internal 4th and 5th waves at that level, pushing Point-4 of the geometry to a lower level at a decelerating rate - Point-4 is the important level in the geometry that defines the 1-4 Line, as well as the most common Geo's Off-Set Rule level of attainment. So, there is no need to trade the chart whose Point-4 remains undefined - However, one should pain close attention to internal wave developments, such as the current correction that followed the vertical bearish impulse, as we know that a 4th way of correction, followed by a 5th bearish impulse will signal the approaching end of a larger swing ... Of course, wait for the a-b-c connection where a reversal of trend by the expression of a bullish impulse would likely have to occur with this transitional correction as well:
As price is moving on the forecast direction, consider this internal geometry (PINK) imposing its own demand upon most immediate and subsequent price action. The 2-4 Line of the larger geometry (BLUE) remains an important signal, not only as a shorting signal upon BACA, as well as a dynamic R/S level.
David