After the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced the measures that the Turkish government would take to improve their currency slippage, over $1 billion was sold to trade for the Turkish lira which caused the USDTRY to drop over 20% making the greatest recovery in any currency in over 40 years.
Understanding how the forex markets operate, the USDTRY will attempt to stabilize sooner or later, fears that it will drop to 20 USDTRY by the end of the year 2022, investors are hopeful that Turkey will recover. This is my technical analysis in the event that investors hold their positions and stabilize the Turkish lira.
your analysis is completely wrong, TRY is on uptrend this is just correction, price maybe move to 10.17 or be range on 12 and 13 then it will push up hardly after new year.
Mezzoforte_Privilege
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@rTrader_official, thank you. You now that the recovery came after investors bought the lira following Erdoğan's announcement right?
rTrader_official
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@NASDAQ_Guru, technically if we analysis monthly chart 100% price move back to HH, this correction is just a small effect on the currency, it can not hold it on current price, we will see higher high very soon maybe next month then new HH up to 20
Mezzoforte_Privilege
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@rTrader_official I'll keep my eye on this, it would work in my favour as I'm holding USDTRY long on a swing trade. Thanks for your perspective
oktaymar
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That 1 billion dollar will buy back when it finishes the considilation to push it to 26.
Mezzoforte_Privilege
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@oktaymar, Interesting observation. Has that happened to any currency in the past? This will bring the country into great poverty. But I'm interested in seeing it play out.
interloperxx
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Hi there. Erdogan and his bank buddies (not only in Turkey) are the biggest manipulators and speculators in the market. Imagine how much money was made in the last days. Maybe he is 50 % right for the country, but the other 50 % he is also right - but only for himself. You predict 1 usd to be 9 TRY? This is impossible. Inflation is too high, prices went up, and with such rates, Turkey would not be competitive anymore. In my opinion, 1 USD will be soon around 13 liras again, and in few months it will test again 15-16 liras for 1 usd.
Mezzoforte_Privilege
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@interloperxx, I like and appreciate your comment. I'm hoping to see a market consolidation to better incorporate technical analysis. Would you suggest that we will see it reach 18 again?
interloperxx
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@NASDAQ_Guru, absolutely, yes, we will see, why not? Does not have to happen in 2 months, but in 2022, why not? First 13, later 15, later 16... It's not only about Erdogan, but also about "traditional" Turkish economic model which just serves this country quite well. Thats the style here. Just remember cutting three or four 0s from "old" turkish liras decades ago, and not only once in Turkish history...
Mezzoforte_Privilege
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@interloperxx I see. according to techenical analysis, we're still bearish but I agree with you that we could see it return to 18 USDTRY but I'm only anticipating this later in the year, around September - November 2022.
Right now it looks to go to 8 USDTRY from 8 we will see it pick up momentum in the bullish side.