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Eren_Jaeger_Trader
Apr 3, 2019 6:00 PM

USDTRY 1:4 Risk Reward SHORT (Fundamentals) Short

FX:USDTRY1W
U.S. Dollar/Turkish New LiraFXCM

Description

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If you get involved in provocative acts, saying ‘foreign currencies will strengthen, this will happen, that will happen’, you will pay a very heavy price - Erdogan

TRY
Fundamental Quant Score +60

USD
Fundamental Quant Score -4


  • Investors seek reforms, fear populism

  • Lira initially weakened 2.5 percent

  • Shares rise 1 percent (Updates lira, adds London swap rates, dollar bonds)

Comment

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Made a typo mistake on the chart "AUD +21 is meant to say (TRY: +60 STRONG)"

Comment

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Some positive USD news suggesting bullish employment numbers in the US, this could have a long impact on USD in the short term. However, as the FOMC announced earlier in the month they have no intentions of interest rate hikes which caused a huge drop in USD value as investor money fled the country.
Support and ResistanceSupply and DemandFundamental AnalysisUSDTRYUSDTRYusdtryshorttrylongerdoganfundamental-analysis
Comments
Eren_Jaeger_Trader
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Mass media coverage showing TRY Weakness telling people to short. The underlying data is suggesting economic strength in turkey.

Screenshot of the latest news: prntscr.com/n72080
MrC00L
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@mattycheung, nummers speaking better than some idiot's here. Nice analysis
. WHY don't!!???
Eren_Jaeger_Trader
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@MrC00L, Thank you, I've written up a more in depth article on the topic here: logikfx.co.uk/information-centre/usdtry-the-big-short

Might be an interesting read for you, appreciate it sir
meveme
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Today’s TL strength is all about S&P report
Otherwise
Look at USD/TL 8.20 in less than 6 months

Cheers
Eren_Jaeger_Trader
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@meveme, thanks for the comment read more on my analysis here: Read more here: logikfx.co.uk/information-centre/usdtry-the-big-short

hayatguzel
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have you ever traded this pair before ?
sorry but this is impossible
Eren_Jaeger_Trader
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@hayatguzel,

Just an idea using fundamentals.

Read more here: logikfx.co.uk/information-centre/usdtry-the-big-short
hayatguzel
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@mattycheung, we have more than %20 inflation here in Turkey and Erdogan is just saving the day unfortunately...
Eren_Jaeger_Trader
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@hayatguzel, yeah that's some pretty high inflation, the political struggles are likely to cause even more volatility
meveme
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@mattycheung, well
1- I have been living in turkey and do investments here over 11 years
2- I do trade this pair all the time
3- I can say u r very wrong in ur analysis TA and ur political view

We may re test 5.40 area
But what u have shown here is almost impossible
Regards
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