The long-term chart shows a very overbought situation, and this still requires a good correction.
As mentioned on a few occasions and misunderstood at times, it does not mean that we cannot see higher levels. In fact, if existing short, we add 15.50-15.75 and once again 16.75 and above. The ultimate goal and objective is 10.50-9.00. This may take quite some months, but this is a technical expectation.
No doubt fundamentals suggest we should see higher at first, and this one should see as an opportunity to sell.
Hey Peter, there is no point in sharing your long term 9.00 goal everyday. We understood it maybe you would like to take a break. It’s been 5 months hope you are not planning to share the same analysis for the rest of the year. Thanks.
peterbokma
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@nh6qgxn4qk, I am very happy to look at it daily.. maybe you do not enjoy it... but that's fine.. just ignore the update if that makes you feel better... in the end there are others that do look at it as well.. am not updating for one person only.. :) anyway thanks for the comment and hope trading will work out for everyone... tc
phys
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technical is not working in TR
Berkingdom
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Unfortunately your analysis is based on an illiusion that what Turkish government show you. Technical analysis wont work for TL.
peterbokma
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@Berkingdom, appreciate your comment, however I disagree with you. Please remember December 2021... market was extremely overbought.. is is now overbought as well.. no one is disputing the fundamentals... but we should consider the state of the market... that is why my opinion it will correct... of course.. everyone can have their opinion.. that is fine... thanks for the comment of course... tc
altinayberkan
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The technical chart is not important in case of Turkish lira. There have been many political issues in the country and I’d expect it to reach 20 within 2-6 months timeframe. Potentially 25-30
peterbokma
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@altinayberkan, let's remember December... last year... it was due to market being very LONG...fundamentals same.. yes political issues...yes all what you mention and perhaps we see 20.00 or higher... the chart I show is long term chart... it can take many months or more for objective to unfold..however... if the overbought status is extreme and it is..(it can become more extreme am not saying it cannot)... it requires recovery... for whatever reasons this will happen... it will for sure.. but from what level etc...that is another story... I always say.. for investors...or traders use what works and ignore what does not.. in your case technical chart not important... no issue... you are trading I assume..and you use what works for you... that is how market is... let's see... and will keep you updated or for those that like to see the update... I am not paid for ding it..but I enjoy analyzing what I see... that's all.. thanks for the comment of course and hope trading will be profitable for you all.. tc
benalperbayram
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Thank you for your sharing. You have been waited the 9-10.5 since January. It has been almost 5 months. May be we will wait 5 more months. Tell me sir, which graphic show that one year later?
peterbokma
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@benalperbayram, please remember it is long-term chart.. yes can take long time. I am looking at markets to help and there are also long-term strategies and this chart is for those that are working on long-term and not short-term. Short-term could mean higher first... I have no issue with that. I continue to update what I observe.. and if one does not enjoy seeing that.. it not n issue... just ignore and look at what is interesting for the person... some trade short-term so that means ignore this log-term forecast right? in the meantime thanks for the feedback of course... tc