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burakpadir
Nov 30, 2018 10:16 PM

USDTRY 01-12-2018 (Economic figures) 

OANDA:USDTRY1D
USD/TRYOANDA

Description

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Orange channel?? or Green Support?? or Below Red Downtrend??
Turkey's economic data comparison 2017-2018

  • External debt +%4 Negative
  • Inflation +%112 Very Negative (%11,90 -> %25,24)
  • Internal debt +%11 Negative
  • Unemployment rate +%6 Negative
  • Central goverment debt +%11 Negative
  • Policy rate (Interest) : +%300 ( %8,50 -> %24,50) Very negative
  • Gold Reserves -%13 Negative
  • Gross FX Reserves -%28 Negative
  • Motor Vehicle Sales -%77 Very negative
  • Tax revenues -%34 Very Negative
  • Building permits -%60 Very Negative
  • Export +%16 Positive*
  • Import -%20 Positive*


* Exports are rising while imports are decreased %20 and manufacturing capacity decreased %7. It seems exporters produce what they have already in their warehouse inventories.Most probably we'll see negative exports and more negative imports incoming months.
All datas based on ceicdata.com.

Comment

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Downtrend broken on 4h chart.Looks like resting at @FIB0.5
I expect 5.71 then 6,24 eventually according to elliot correction (B) wave.
Trend AnalysisBeyond Technical AnalysisCup And HandleUSDTRY
Comments
JordanEagle
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Very professional analysis....on the long term, do you think it will follow the orange channel? @burakpadir
burakpadir
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@Tariqawwad, it seems so. Always pins below orange support and get very quick reaction and close above of it.
PooyaSalehipour
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trend is broken. we need ti break the last high pivot.
maralsss
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whats your idea about usdtry in next week?!
burakpadir
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@maralsss, i expect orange channel however it seems impossible to guess as it closed below red downtrend.
maralsss
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@burakpadir, thanks
PooyaSalehipour
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highest interest rate can not be stable. jump from 8 to 25 percent is just joking economy.
PooyaSalehipour
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The analysis is beautiful. Turkey will make the dollar cheap. But, reality is something else. Inflation is unrestrained.
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