Just noticed Turkish Lira may be topping out. Volume saying institutional money is selling off positions. I marked off wyckoff distribution elements that have been printed thus far.
Also a 180 degree dual square is showing up as a time wall as per 20 year cycle. (Approx 3650 days from August 2008 bottom). Targets are posted on chart:
The only thing I am concerned is that USD should be strong this year. Its advisable to set a pending order sell to reduce risk since fundamentals are saying USD is strong this year.
I think your idea is correct but I disagree about the timing. I think there will be another peak within a month or two. Then your scenario will be in place.
TalhaA
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Volume shows like institutional money is accumulating. On the other hand there are no positive reports or developments that would bring the TRY down.
I'm living in Turkey, sentiment is very negative. Massive debt pegged at USD is shrinking several industries. Monetary policy non-existent.
The lowest would be 4.50 in my view and that would be grabbed like crazy at that level to bounce back up.
adan0327
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@TalhaA, Ive been studying Wyckoff for years. I can assure you this isn't typical re-accumulation behavior. I can assure you that. I'm expecting To see a ranging market or a breakdown in the next few months tbh. And Right now would be the best time to get ready to short for the exact reason majority of traders are bearish. My philosophy is to get ready to short against the herd. The herd is usually wrong almost all the time. Shorting on a pending order wouldn't be a bad idea. Take a look at the monthly chart and see the bearish divergence for yourself.
WACD
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@adan0327, and you assume try will gain value from this (or some) point forward?