IvanLabrie
Long

USDTRY: Long dollar and yen amidst uncertainty and risk off

FX:USDTRY   U.S. Dollar/Turkish New Lira
I've compiled the news events that surrounded significant rallies in the USDTRY             pair in this chart, as well as analyzed the daily and weekly signals on chart. We can conclude the pair is headed towards 3.14825, to be reached by Sept. 23rd, or sooner. I'd like to enter longs in this pair, using very wide stops initially, and scaling in as the market proves us right.
Technically, we want price to stay above 2.9250 to stay long, but it might retest this level before rallying further.
Price is now against a strong support, and has moved up after hitting it, despite the immediate gap down after the (apparently staged) military coup in Turkey failed, and President Erdogan started a massive witch hunt, incarcerating 6000 people in little time. Investor confidence is bleak, despite the 'stabilization', so, I think it'll be wise to short the Lira for the time being.

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Ivan Labrie

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Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise             directly or indirectly from use of or reliance             on such information.
Comment:
snapshot


USDTRY held at support, holding longs. If you were awake when it happened, you could have added to the trade with the same stop.
Comment: Considering the speed of the move, and the decrease in momentum today, you can close 50-75% of the position now.
Comment: Closing 75% or even 50% 13 hours ago was a good idea certainly. Wait for now if still in.
You may buy back the position you closed with a stop at your previous entry price now too, risking your realized profit only. (and move all stops there)
Comment:
snapshot


You can now close that partial close-reentry position again.
Comment: That's 100 pips.
Comment: Dips to support are a buy, let's keep an eye on the pullback.
Comment: Approaching the coup key level, might be worth paying attention again.
how many days will we have to wait till 3.10?
Reply
Potentially, a long time!
It's more of a weekly trade, so give it 3 weeks at least.
The stop should be under 2.9230.
+1 Reply
roadtogo IvanLabrie
I got some long, where do u suggest me to close this week?
Reply
Where did you enter and what stop loss?
Reply
roadtogo IvanLabrie
2,975 and my SL 2.917 but will move upwards my SL tomorrow morning before stocks opening (Turkey)
Reply
Yes, good idea. It shouldn't really fall under 2.9231 if it's going to rally from here.
+1 Reply
roadtogo IvanLabrie
looks going well until now:)
Reply
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