I refer to this post as an update to the previous analysis. Current analysis uses the rule that the exchange rate can move symmetrically on wave curves. This is what we will trade. The situation is easier now, since I have been in a short position for a long time, so I will keep this trade. The figure shows how the wave sequence develops on the MA curves. The rule is that we consider the position of the two extreme moving average curves. Here the number of MA days is indifferent. In case the analysis is correct, the target price for the exchange rate decrease is 5.50110usd
The daily time frame on USDTRY is pretty difficult to trade. The volatility reflected in the ATR is too much for me on the daily. Plus I don't like waiting weeks and months. But it's fine for others. In the chart below, ATR trend switches are uncommon on USDTRY and seem to be respected for price movement. There is also some trendline support above the most recent ATR switch.
meszaros
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@Captain_Walker, Thanks for the comment. Yes, I often have to wait for weeks for the long-term trading result. This is a disadvantage. But the benefit is that I get out of daily volatility. Trends are easier to fulfill. Everybody had thought that he was thinking the right way, but a short panic took out the stop order and then the exchange rate began to move in our direction. This is very rare in long-term trading. I think it's easier to make money in this timeline.