USD/TRY technicals and trade set-up

FX:USDTRY   U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira
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Trend: Bullish in short term and Bearish in long term. We run you through emphasizing long term trend analysis.

USDTRY             bearish momentum seems stronger after breaking major support levels.

Firstly, breaking after neckline of head and shoulder pattern at 2.89 levels.

Secondly, at 2.8676 levels and now at 2.8218 levels.

Today even though pair is spiking the current prices have been well below DMAs and 7DMA crosses over below 21DMA which is still a sell signal.

Leading oscillators on daily charts converge downwards but little indecisive, while MACD is indicative of bearish bias, on the contrary we could also see a strong support at 2.8069 levels.

On a broader perspective, a shooting star at peaks is traced out at 2.9466 levels.

RSI and Stochs have been bearish bias as they converge to the declining rallies right from overbought zone. The current prices on monthly chart have slid below 7EMA.

Yesterday, Turkish central bank ( Central Bank of Republic Turkey) left its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 7.5% on April 20th, as widely expected, saying it will maintain the tight monetary policy stance considering the current inflation expectations and pricing behavior.

By lowering the rate itself, CBT             limits the maximum interest rate at which it can intervene – and it does without any additional benefit which could not be achieved by letting the tool become dormant.

Hence, this is about political signalling: most readers are aware that CBT             is under pressure to bring down interest rates in the economy, and bringing down less used rates, especially while inflation dynamics are supportive, is arguably a lesser evil.

So it is advisable to go for boundary binaries with upper strikes at 2.8250 and lower strikes at 2.8185 levels for certain and exponential leveraged profits.

Alternatively, on hedging grounds, go long in 1M ATM -0.49 delta put option while shorting 1W (1.5%) Out of the money put with positive theta or closer to zero for time decay advantage on shorter tenors on short side.
Thanks for another perfect analysis. But please be aware of Turkey's Geopolitical Region and its very sensitive positioning.
This makes USDTRY pair much more related to political developments than perfect graphical analysis like yours.
As a conclusion, I saw many times that this pair gave fake results just with tech.analy.
My recommendation is that traders should only get in to trade not longer than daily basis. If this is the case, this pair is one of the most
profitable pairs.
Just trade this pair daily.
Have a nice day.
+1 Reply
Well, yeah Geopolitical risks has consistently been lingering around pair, which is why the last line of the above write up advocates the strategy that is most likely to mitigate such potential FX risks irrespective of the underlying fluctuations. But as per the customized requirements one needs to alter expiries along with accurate option greeks. And Yes, as you rightly mentioned.. USDTRY could serve as a perfect trading pick.

Euro/Turkish deal risks impulsive failure if politics do not give way to pragmatic approach in their business practice.

Beyond the EU-Turkey agreement, there is the whole issue of the relationship between Europe and its neighbors, that of the EU's identity, and also its place in the world in the 21st century - on demographic, economic, geopolitical and cultural planes - which are being called into question. Moreover, Russia (Turkish biggest Trade partner) can burst-out at any time as they dont seem to have forgotten their aircraft that was shot down by Turkish army.

Anyways which ways, end of the day how does our portfolio perform is what matters, thanks a lot for your valuable inputs, happy learning & happy trading..!!! Cheers.
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