Turkey is a risky country because of ISIS suicede bombers. Thats why tourism will damage economy. There will be no tourists and there will be no Dollar. Thats why Dollar targets 3.85 in Turkey next 6 months.
Isis is a risk for whole world not just Turkey.
However i support your target price(usdtry) since GDP loss increases every year but tourism is just a peanut beside industrial unbalance on import&export.