This is a classic example of risk management, if there is anyone who is over leveraged before the crash, the account must have been wiped out. I wish noone be in that position but if there is any survivor then probably a story to tell and help the community.
Why I am inclined towards long.
#1 : This is a retracement of the entire move from the beginning of USDTRY until 12/20/21 and we are at the moment between 38% and 50% fib level. is there a room for this to fall more, oh yes upto may be 50% at first which also confluence with 10 days moving average. Opportunity to sell every bounce with a good risk management
#2 : Then let's take the entire move of 2021 and breached 61.8% , one more leg down further would take us to 78% weekly level which is where level from #1 comes. accumulate slow and steady with good risk management
#3 : The price is in range bound at the moment between 12.5 and 10.5 Sell high and buy low with a good risk management
Where do I stand, I am bullish dollar that should say everything. All of the above are price analysis not a time analysis and my personal opinion. If you are not in this trade then staying out is better but if you are a survivor then either of 3 options should be helpful. Good luck.
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Be sure to be on the top of it if you are in the trade. Option #3 might no longer be valid unless it comes back to the box. Good luck
Government fixed it for 12.74 for very short term today. Your blue fibo at 50% makes sense in a way.
letslearn
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@baypinar, That is excellent to hear some fundamentals. From the technical side, I would like to see 13.29 and decide the next step. It is leaving red fib 38% behind so eventually that has become resistance and next stop would be 23% red fib level. But nothing goes only one way.
baypinar
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@letslearn, The government gave up fixing the currency for TL deposits only a few days after. Thank you for your analysis.